Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.
Market Report for Tuesday, November 1st
* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 11-9 | Units: + 1.06 | ROI: + 5.55%
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat (-1, 227)
This is purely a play on the number here. The market bet Golden State down when these two teams met in San Francisco last week, ultimately closing the Warriors as a 6.5-point favorite in a game they won 123-110 over the Heat. I made Golden State a 1.5 point favorite so this is going to be a small play on a number I expect to close higher tonight.
As for recent form, obviously the hope is that the Warriors show some more urgency than they have early on in this trip. They lost a lazy overtime game against Charlotte on Saturday then followed that up with an outright loss to Detroit in which the bench had a much larger role. Meanwhile, Miami went on to lose to Sacramento after dropping that game at Golden State. The Heat are now 1-5-1 ATS for the season and 23rd in offense at 111.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time.
Play: Warriors (PK) for 0.5u
Best Bets Recap
Warriors (PK) for 0.5u
Best Games
Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5, 218.5)
Last time we saw Oklahoma City they ripped of an 18-2 run in the last five minutes of regulation against Dallas to force overtime, something that would ultimately lead them to winning the game outright as 10.5-point underdogs. They are a team which I have upgraded since the start of the season, and I am very much interested in tonight, but the market does not seem to agree entirely.
This number opened Thunder -3.5 and is now down to -3 which isn’t the biggest line move in the world but does tell us that there is some support for the Magic. Orlando does have an advantage when it comes to size. Their starting frontcourt of Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. is a trio of 6-foot-10 forwards that will provide problems for a Thunder team whose biggest starter could be Aleksej Pokusevski who was -21 against Dallas and has been a turnstile on defense this season.
For now, this will remain a non-play until I see what the market does here. If it continues to drop, I will try to come in and lay a smaller number with Oklahoma City.
The Others
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns (-5, 230.5)
This number is down to -3.5 at a few shops and I cannot disagree with that at all. Minnesota has struggled on offense this season – it is averaging 111.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time – but its defense has been as advertised. The Timberwolves are fourth in non-garbage time defensive rating (107.4), and they are allowing just 87.6 points per 100 play in the halfcourt, the third best rating in the league. With Deandre Ayton still sidelined with an ankle sprain it seemed incorrect to put up such a strong number in favor of Phoenix, and the market responded. This total has dropped as well and is as low as 227.5 at Caesars.
Chicago Bulls at *Brooklyn Nets (-2, 233)
Brooklyn might have only allowed 1.029 points per possession last night, but the shot quality data would suggest that the Nets were somewhat lucky considering the shots they allowed. Their defense is by no means getting better, and with Ben Simmons likely sidelined tonight it’s not getting any better. Chicago has lost and failed to cover its last two games, and their poor defense is starting to show. The Bulls have allowed 117.4 points per 100 possessions while posting a -5.4 net rating. Surprisingly, this total is dropping from the open and is now 231.5 at one shop.
