The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, January 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted NBA betting trends features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, CHICAGO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, INDIANA, PHOENIX, CHICAGO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing the majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-DET, MEM-IND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-DET, TOR-ATL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): CHI-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in OKC-DET, PLAY OVER instead in TOR-ATL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 23-22 SU and 26-19 ATS (57.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/28: DETROIT vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+12.5 vs OKC)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 43-38 SU and 42-38-1 ATS (52.5%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/28: DETROIT vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+12.5 vs OKC)

* Under the total was 82-52 (61.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/28: UNDER the total in INDIANA-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229)

* Over the total was 70-45 (60.9%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/28: Over the total in DETROIT-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 240)

* Under the total was 42-38 (52.5%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/28: Under the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 240)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 21-14 SU and 24-9-1 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home scenario game over the last three seasons
1/28: INDIANA vs. Memphis
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-9 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following NBA betting trends details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 125-25 SU but just 59-89-2 ATS (39.9%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 71-56 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 130-105 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-120 (59%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in OKC-DET (o/u at 240)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 219-224 SU and 192-239-12 ATS (44.5%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-6.5 vs TOR)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 128-46 SU and 97-75-2 ATS (56.4%).
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-6.5 at POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following NBA betting trends details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 42-11 SU and 33-18-2 ATS (64.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at DET)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 53-46 SU and 57-40-3 ATS (58.8%) surge.

System Matches: TOR-ATL matchup has both teams qualify

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +6.5 (+2.4), 2. PORTLAND +6.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -1.5 (+1.5), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+0.4), 3. INDIANA -9 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +6.5 (+1.5), 2. ORLANDO +1.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+4.3), 2. CHICAGO -6.5 (+1.6), 3. INDIANA -9 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-IND OVER 229 (+1.5), 2. CHI-POR OVER 219 (+1.0), 3. TOR-ATL OVER 242.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-DET UNDER 240 (-1.7), 2. PHX-ORL UNDER 227.5 (-0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +6.5 (+2.2), 2. PORTLAND +6.5 (+0.9), 3. MEMPHIS +9 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+1.8), 2. PHOENIX -1.5 (+1.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEM-IND OVER 229 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-ATL UNDER 242.5 (-2.8), 2. OKC-DET UNDER 240 (-1.8), 3. CHI-POR UNDER 219 (-1.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) CHICAGO at (530) PORTLAND
* Favorites have swept the last four ATS in the CHI-POR series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(521) MEMPHIS at (522) INDIANA
* Favorites are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the MEM-IND series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(525) OKLAHOMA CITY at (526) DETROIT
* DETROIT is on a 7-2 ATS run versus Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(523) PHOENIX at (524) ORLANDO
* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the PHO-ORL series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(527) TORONTO at (528) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the TOR-ATL series at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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