NBA Team Schedules Provide Betting Opportunities
Coming off what was a forgettable All-Star weekend for the league, the NBA players get back to work on Thursday, with each team having about 1/3 of its regular season schedule remaining. There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.
Keep these upcoming games lists handy and hit ’em when they come around. Don’t fret if you forget any, however, as they will become part of our daily NBA Analytics Reports for the rest of the season.
17 Top Situational Records from 2023-24 season (in team alphabetical order)
ATLANTA is 5-13 SU and 3-15 ATS (16.7%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
This power rating range typically includes the middle third of teams in the NBA, and it currently groups nine teams. Ironically, Atlanta has been in this range for virtually the entire first part of the 2023-24 season, meaning the Hawks are struggling badly against teams that are at a similar level to themselves. The Hawks remaining games against this current set of teams include:
3/5 at New York
4/1 at Chicago
4/4 at Dallas
4/9 at Miami
4/14 at Indiana
ATLANTA is 13-19 SU and 8-24 ATS (25%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season.
The Hawks haven’t done a lot of things well this season, but one particular area in which they have struggled schedule-wise has been in the One Day Rest scenario. Unfortunately, this is the most common scheduling situation for the league’s teams, and teams that underperform here are generally losing teams for bettors to follow. As an NBA betting trend, these are the games the rest of the way in which bettors would want to consider fading Atlanta:
2/25 vs. Orlando
2/27 vs. Utah
2/29 at Brooklyn
3/2 at Brooklyn
3/8 at Memphis
3/10 vs. New Orleans
3/15 at Utah
3/17 at LA Clippers
3/23 vs. Charlotte
3/25 vs. Boston
3/27 vs. Portland
3/30 vs. Milwaukee
4/1 at Chicago
4/3 vs. Detroit
4/6 at Denver
4/12 at Minnesota
4/14 at Indiana
BOSTON is 6-3 SU but 0-8-1 ATS (0%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
This trend is of obvious concern to the Celtics in their quest to win an NBA title this season, as the teams with 100+ power ratings will generally be the ones they will be playing in the postseason. Boston has been very good at home in general so far, but having struggled there against the other league’s best is something they will have to change. The remaining games against this current set of teams include:
2/27 vs. Philadelphia
3/3 vs. Golden State
3/14 vs. Phoenix
3/20 vs. Milwaukee
4/3 vs. Oklahoma City
CHICAGO is 17-4 Over the total (81%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
The Bulls’ games this season versus non-conference foes have averaged just shy of 233 PPG. The average total in these games has been 222.5. Thus, these totals are going Over by more than 10 PPG on average. That is quite a cushion and provides plenty of reasons why the trend should continue the rest of the way in these games:
2/25 at New Orleans
3/4 at Sacramento
3/6 at Utah
3/7 vs. Golden State
3/9 at LA Clippers
3/11 vs. Dallas
3/14 vs. LA Clippers
3/18 vs. Portland
3/21 at Houston
3/31 at Minnesota
DALLAS boasts an impressive 11-2 SU and ATS (84.6%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
The Mavericks have been wildly inconsistent this season. Some of it has to do with key players being in and out of the lineup, some of it due to home performance, and some due to other factors. One area in which Dallas has thrived so far has been as a small favorite on the road, and these are the games I would expect them to play in that role in the latter part of the season:
2/28 at Toronto
3/9 at Detroit
3/11 at Chicago
3/19 at San Antonio
3/25 at Utah
3/31 at Houston
4/9 at Charlotte
INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 9-2 SU and ATS (81.8%).
Any coach would tell you that he would love for his team to have the most success against its divisional rivals and that pretty much goes for any sport. Well, so far this NBA season, Indiana has thrived against its Central Division foes. Here are the Pacers’ remaining divisional games:
2/22 vs. Detroit
3/13 vs. Chicago
3/18 vs. Cleveland
3/20 at Detroit
3/27 at Chicago
4/12 at Cleveland
The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS (66.7%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
The Clippers have been very good this season in games expected to be competitive when they are favored. That is a good sign, as I would think that this situation will come up quite often during any postseason run that occurs. As for the rest of the regular season, these are the games that I feel LA might find itself as a small favorite:
2/25 vs. Sacramento
2/28 vs. LA Lakers
3/6 at Houston
3/9 vs. Chicago
3/10 vs. Milwaukee
3/12 vs. Minnesota
3/17 vs. Atlanta
3/24 vs. Philadelphia
3/25 vs. Indiana
3/27 at Philadelphia
3/29 at Orlando
3/31 at Charlotte
4/2 at Sacramento
4/4 vs. Denver
4/5 vs. Utah
4/7 vs. Cleveland
4/10 vs. Phoenix
4/12 vs. Utah
4/14 vs. Houston
The LA LAKERS have gone 21-7 OVER the total (75%) on the road so far this season.
Despite totals averaging 231.5 in their road games this season, the Lakers have rewarded Over bettors with a 75% win rate. Team LeBron is doing its part, putting up 116.6 PPG themselves, but the real boost comes from LA’s porous defense, allowing 121.9 PPG in such contests. This continued lack of attention to defense on the road will doom the Lakers’ playoff hopes. Here are the remaining road games:
2/22 at Golden State
2/25 at Phoenix
2/28 at LA Clippers
3/13 at Sacramento
3/25 at Milwaukee
3/27 at Memphis
3/29 at Indiana
3/31 at Brooklyn
4/2 at Toronto
4/3 at Washington
4/12 at Memphis
4/14 at New Orleans
MILWAUKEE is 7-0 Under the total (100%) on the road versus Western Conference foes so far this season.
There has been a lot of concern about the Bucks’ defense this season, and while that might be valid, it isn’t why these games against the West have been going Under. Milwaukee has scored just 113.6 PPG in these contests, against 123.4 in all other games. That is quite a situational drop-off and one NBA betting trend to remember for these remaining road games vs. West foes:
2/23 at Minnesota
3/6 at Golden State
3/8 at LA Lakers
3/10 at LA Clippers
3/12 at Sacramento
3/28 at New Orleans
4/12 at Oklahoma City
MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 19-15 SU but 11-23 ATS (32.4%).
After acquiring Damian Lillard in the offseason, much was expected of the Bucks in ’23-24. However, having already jettisoned their head coach, it’s safe to say that Milwaukee has been one of the biggest underachievers in the NBA. Still, there is a lot of season left to turn things around. The first order of business will be improving in the league’s most popular scheduling scenario.:
2/25 at Philadelphia
2/27 vs. Charlotte
2/29 at Charlotte
3/6 at Golden State
3/8 at LA Lakers
3/10 at LA Clippers
3/12 at Sacramento
3/14 vs. Philadelphia
3/26 vs. LA Lakers
3/28 at New Orleans
3/30 at Atlanta
4/5 vs. Toronto
4/7 vs. New York
4/9 vs. Boston
4/12 at Oklahoma City
4/14 at Orlando
NEW YORK has dominated its weakest competition this season, going 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS (78.9%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of less than 95.
This is what good teams should do. However, if you consider that the Knicks are 33-22 overall, it means that they are just 15-21 against the rest of the league. That might not bode well for a postseason run. It should still payoff for bettors in these remaining games against the league’s worst:
2/25 vs. Detroit
3/14 at Portland
3/23 vs. Brooklyn
3/25 vs. Detroit
3/27 at Toronto
3/29 at San Antonio
4/12 vs. Brooklyn
NEW YORK has gone 9-1 Under the total (90%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
The Knicks allow just 102.5 PPG in this situation this season and have held six of the 10 opponents to less than 100 points. I don’t care what the scenario is; there aren’t many spots in the NBA nowadays where you can cite stats like this. The combined scores of these games are just 113 PPG on totals averaging 223.7, so there has been a bit of room for error. Consider these numbers for the Knicks remaining home games when coming off a road contest:
2/24 vs. Boston
3/5 vs. Atlanta
3/23 vs. Brooklyn
3/31 vs. Oklahoma City
4/4 vs. Sacramento
4/12 vs. Brooklyn
ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 23-8 SU & 24-7 ATS (77.4%).
The Magic are a young team so it would make sense that they would thrive in a situation of routine. The problem, however, is that they are 7-17 SU in all other spots. The One Day Rest scenario is the most frequent scheduling situation on any team’s schedule, so this is an ideal NBA betting trend for a team to have. These are the rest of the games this season in which bettors will be able to take advantage:
2/24 at Detroit
2/27 vs. Brooklyn
2/29 vs. Utah
3/5 at Charlotte
3/8 at New York
3/10 vs. Indiana
3/15 at Toronto
3/17 vs. Toronto
3/19 vs. Charlotte
3/21 vs. New Orleans
3/23 vs. Sacramento
3/29 vs. LA Clippers
4/1 vs. Portland
4/3 at New Orleans
4/5 at Charlotte
4/7 vs. Chicago
4/9 at Houston
4/12 at Philadelphia
4/14 vs. Milwaukee
PHOENIX is 8-0 Over the total (100%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
I realize this is a somewhat wordy and confusing NBA betting trend, but when you consider the following stats, you will look more favorably on it. The Suns have played a non-divisional conference team consecutively eight times this season, scoring 125.5 PPG while yielding 119.5. That is a combined effort of 245 PPG. The average posted total on these games has been a mere 227.5, meaning these games are going Over by a whopping 17.5 PPG! They aren’t even close. These are the rest of the games this season that fit the trend:
2/23 at Houston
3/2 vs. Houston
3/3 vs. Oklahoma City
3/5 at Denver
3/25 at San Antonio
3/27 at Denver
3/29 at Oklahoma City
4/1 at New Orleans
4/7 vs. New Orleans
SAN ANTONIO has gone 0-9 SU and ATS (0%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
The Spurs are a low-tier team in the NBA, one that lost 18 games in a row at one point already, and they have been now for the last five years or so despite NBA media giving head coach Gregg Popovich a lifetime free pass. To get to the next tier, teams typically have to be able to beat teams somewhat regularly in that tier. San Antonio isn’t doing that and is far from being competitive again. Consider that in these remaining outings:
2/22 at Sacramento
2/25 at Utah
3/3 vs. Indiana
3/5 at Houston
3/7 at Sacramento
3/12 vs. Houston
3/19 vs. Dallas
3/27 at Utah
3/29 vs. New York
TORONTO has gone Over the total in its last 12 schedule spots when playing consecutive road games.
If you haven’t picked up on it, I love trends when the average scores blow away the average posted lines/totals. This one tops all of them I’ve shared so far. The Raptors have clearly suffered from some jet lag, as their defensive effort in the second (or more) of consecutive road games has been atrocious. During this 12-0 Over streak, they allow 129.3 PPG while scoring 121.5. Yes, that is accurate. These games are producing an almost all-star game worthy 250.8 PPG. The average totals have been 232.4, so bettors have enjoyed more than an 18 PPG cushion. Toronto has lost the last six games of this type, yielding 135.2 PPG. It won’t get easier for them as fatigue gets worse later in the season:
2/26 at Indiana
3/9 at Portland
3/11 at Denver
3/13 at Detroit
4/5 at Milwaukee
4/12 at Miami
4/14 at Miami
WASHINGTON is 18-8 ATS (69.2%) as a road underdog this season but 8-18 ATS (30.8%) as a home underdog.
This is a strange performance dichotomy, and it shows that Washington plays better on the road than it does at home. These trends will apply in a lot of games the rest of the way
Fade Washington at home in all remaining home games besides potentially 3/8 vs. Charlotte, 3/29 vs. Detroit, and 4/5 vs. Portland.
Back Washington in likely ALL remaining road games.
