In the NBA Finals the Boston Celtics will face the Dallas Mavericks with a championship on the line. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!
NBA Finals Series Preview & Prediction
Forty-seven days after the start of the NBA playoffs, the NBA Finals will begin.
Boston returns to basketball’s biggest stage after a dominant – yet highly scrutinized – run through the Eastern Conference. The Celtics went 12-2 SU against playoff foes, but its 7-7 ATS record with a -0.9 spread differential was a disappointment.
Dallas is in the Finals for the first time since 2011, but the upstart Mavericks enter this series with much more positive vibes. In 17 postseason games the team is 12-5 SU/11-6 ATS with the third-best spread differential (+3.7) among playoff teams.
The public sentiment seems to be that Boston is struggling, while Dallas enters this series in much better form. Initial market moves support that theory, as most series prices moved in favor of the Mavericks when this series was officially set on Thursday night. However, the market has corrected some egregious overreactions, and we have stabilized at a consensus price of -210 for the series in favor of the Celtics.
Early projections of this series had Boston at -225 or higher. Bettors who come into this series must figure out if that adjustment is warranted and decide the best course of action.
With that in mind, it should not be forgotten that the Celtics are a good team.
Despite the narrative of a less than impressive run through a terrible Eastern Conference, Boston dominated statistically.
The Celtics went 12-2 with the best non-garbage time net rating (+10.3). Their net rating in the postseason is nearly four points higher than the second-best team in the playoffs, the Thunder (+6.5).
One of Boston’s two losses came in the first round against Miami. It was a game in which the Heat went 23-of-43 (53.5%) from beyond the arc; a performance that tied a franchise playoff record for Miami.
It should also be noted that Boston thrived in the area in which it struggled most the last two postseasons: clutch time.
In four clutch games – game within five points with five or fewer minutes left – the Celtics went 4-0 SU with a playoff-best +43.9 net rating. The Mavericks come into this series with the most clutch wins (6), but they were just +1.6 per 100 possessions in clutch minutes.
Boston also provides Dallas with an immense challenge when it comes to defense.
The Timberwolves led the league in non-garbage time defensive rating (108.9) in the regular season, but the Celtics were not far behind (112.0). They also defend in a much different way than Minnesota does.
Boston’s unique personnel allows it to switch almost any match up on the floor and throw out different defensive assignments than expected.
In the regular season meeting after the trade deadline, the Celtics put Jayson Tatum on Dereck Lively and Kristaps Porzingis on P.J. Washington to start the game. That meant Doncic was forced to use Washington as a screener in order to target Porzingis, severely cutting down on the lobs that the duo have used to terrorize the Western Conference this postseason.
Boston also showed it was willing to switch Al Horford onto Doncic in that contest when he was involved. Horford cannot shut down Doncic – no one can – but it is evidence to the fact that the Celtics can show Doncic many different defensive styles throughout the series, not just traditional drop coverage when attacking their centers.
Dallas has evolved into an elite defensive team in its own right though, and Boston will have to figure out how to contend with that interior defense.
The Mavericks have allowed their playoff opponents to shoot just 59.4% at the rim and 42.3% on short mid-range attempts (4-to-14 feet). They have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game (42.7) in the postseason. The Celtics have attempted just 28.9% of their attempts at the rim and 17.8% from short mid-range, but they will still need to get to the rim in order to win this series.
Boston can do that by challenging Dallas’ centers to guard along the perimeter.
The Celtics have two centers who can shoot from distance. Porzingis shot 37.5% from 3-point range in the regular season, and Horford hit 42.0% of his attempts from deep. In the last regular season meeting between these teams, Boston used Porzingis in plenty of pick-and-pops. As a result, the Celtics’ center finished 4-of-8 from deep in the contest, many of them open off of those plays. Horford went 2-of-5 from beyond the arc.
That ability to bring Lively and Daniel Gafford out of the paint paid off in the regular season meeting. Boston went a combined 26-of-38 (68.4%) inside 14 feet and scored 62 points in the paint. The Celtics will need to open the floor as effectively in this series if they want to win.
That being said, the Mavericks do have the best player on the floor.
Doncic has antidotes to many defensive schemes. He knows how to attack Boston’s unique defensive lineups. Against Minnesota, he destroyed the Timberwolves’ drop coverage, blitzing scheme and everything in between. Against the Celtics he put up a paltry 37 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists on 14-of-25 shooting.
Doncic will have the advantage when he gets to attack Porzingis in drop coverage throughout the series. He will target Derrick White – who gives up three inches and forty pounds to Doncic – routinely. There is no stopping one of the best players on the planet.
But, the Boston Celtics just have more at their disposal.
The series price where it currently sits is somewhat cheap by my measure. The fairer price was when the market was at -225 consensus. It seems likely that the price will only get cheaper as we get closer to the beginning of the series, so those who agree could benefit from waiting for the majority to make their opinion known.
Boston might seem like it has been struggling, but its dominance has been hiding in plain sight. That should lead to an opportunity to back the better team in this series.
Recommendation: Boston to win series (-210) or better | Boston Series Spread (-1.5, +100) or better
