Best Bets on Today’s NBA Player Props Market
If you’re looking for some plays for the NBA Finals action on Friday, June 9th, we have you covered in every way possible. As always, we’ll have best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, spreads and totals. However, we’re tackling player props here, and we’re targeting Jimmy Butler in Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets tonight. Keep reading to find out how we’re betting this.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on June 7
Here are our favorite NBA prop bets for Friday, June 9:
Denver Nuggets (-3.5, 210.5) at Miami Heat – Game 4
Michael Porter Jr.’s concerning play on the defensive end has allowed the Heat to even up this series. The forward is constantly in the wrong spots on that end of the floor, which has given Miami a ton of open looks from deep. And the Heat buried 17 of their 35 triples in Game 2.
Denver head coach Mike Malone clearly sees what is going on, which is why Porter Jr. played only 26 minutes in Game 2. Instead, Malone upped Bruce Brown’s minutes, as the 26-year-old is a more reliable defensive option. After playing only 21 minutes in the opening game of the NBA Finals, Brown played 27 in Game 2. And I think he’ll end up nearing that number again in Game 3. Not only is Porter struggling defensively, but he also hasn’t been hitting shots offensively. So, if he struggles with his jumper out the gate, the Nuggets will quickly replace him with Brown.
With all of that in mind, I love the idea of backing Brown to make a couple of triples tonight. You can take him to hit over 0.5 3s at -155 odds for a full unit while also sprinkling a little on him to hit two or more at +310 odds. Brown is no sniper from deep, but he shot 35.8% from the outside during the regular season. And the wing has hit 1.5 3s per game since the start of this series while launching three 3s in both contests.
Brown isn’t a guy that is going to be shy about taking open shots, and he will have plenty of opportunities in this game. Because of how much firepower the Nuggets generally have on the floor at the same time, Brown is a player that defenses tend to give space. And I have a lot of faith that he’ll knock at least one down in this game. Sure, there could be some nerves with this being a massive road game, but Brown has had no trouble hitting shots on the road throughout the course of the postseason.
This is just a great chance to take a play with serious upside. It’s not every day that you can back a legitimate rotation player at +310 odds to do something well within reason. Brown has already had four games this postseason in which he has hit multiple outside shots.
Since the start of the NBA Finals, Jimmy Butler is averaging 6.7 assists per game. The Miami star only had four dimes in Game 3, but that’s because his teammates shot uncharacteristically poorly in that game. Butler had 13 potential assists in the game, which means he set his teammates up for 13 good opportunities in the disappointing loss. If he does that again in Game 4, you’d have to think his teammates will repay him by making some shots.
Butler has already had two games with at least seven assists in these finals, so it’s hard not to love him to have at least seven dimes here. And the fact that you can get it at plus-money odds only makes it sweeter. Now, the Nuggets did do a great job of contesting some of the looks that the Heat’s shooters got in Game 3. But their effort level was off the charts in the game, and I think they’re due for a slight dip in that regard in Game 4. It’s hard to play flawless defensive basketball two games in a row, and that’s especially true of road games in the playoffs.
Look for Butler to continue to make the right reads in this game, which means looking for opportunities to find guys like Max Strus and Gabe Vincent for open shots. They combined to shoot 3 of 17 from the floor and just 2 of 10 from 3 in Game 3. But it’s hard to envision them failing to show up again. Both players are very reliable outside shooters, and role players are always more comfortable at home. So, it’s hard to see them struggling to bury open looks in Miami twice in a row.
Butler should also have more success getting Bam Adebayo some easy shots at the rim in this game. Adebayo shot poorly in the third game in this series, but he should be able to bounce back and perform at a higher level here. That’ll help Butler get his assist total up in this one.
The series is more or less on the line in Game 4, as Miami knows it can’t afford to go down 3-1 against a Denver team that is a lot more talented. With that, you should expect a tremendous effort from the Heat, starting with Butler. There isn’t a competitor in these finals that is as fiery as Butler, and he’s going to go out and try and do everything he can to help his team even up the series. I wouldn’t be shocked if he flirts with a triple-double.
Bet: Butler Over 6.5 Assists (+120)
