Best Bets on Today’s NBA Player Props Market
The NBA schedule for Wednesday, March 15th is an exciting one and we have all of our basketball bettors covered from every angle. As always, we’ll have best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, spreads and totals. However, we’re tackling player props here, and we’re targeting big names like Jimmy Butler, Patrick Williams and Paul George tonight. Keep reading to find out how we’re betting on each of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 15
Here are our favorite NBA prop bets for Wednesday, March 15 (odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook):
Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat (-4, 220)
This season, Jimmy Butler is averaging 5.0 assists per game for the Heat, and it’s the fourth year in a row in which he’s averaged at least 5.0 dimes per contest in Miami. Butler has always been a good playmaker, but the Heat’s point guard issues have put Butler in more of an on-ball role. And that’s something we like a lot heading into this one, as we’re counting on the 33-year-old to have at least five assists against the Grizzlies tonight.
The Grizzlies are giving up more assists per game than all but five teams this season, which says a little about their ability to defend off the ball. Memphis is a fantastic basketball team on both ends of the floor, but the stats are the stats. And this suddenly looks like a good matchup for Butler, who happened to have eight assists in an eight-point loss to the Grizzlies on December 5th.
It’s also interesting to note that Butler is averaging 9.7 potential assists per game this season. That means that Butler is setting teammates up for scoring opportunities nearly 10 times per game, but they aren’t exactly cashing in for him. But that’s an important stat to note, as it shows that Butler’s assist totals should probably be a bit higher. And that is why we’re comfortable laying a little juice on him to dish out five assists tonight. It’s a very low number for a playmaker of his caliber.
Also, according to our Daily Prop Analyzer, Butler has gone over the 4.5-assist mark in 32 of the 55 games in which we’ve tracked him at that number. That’s a 58.2% hit rate.
Bet: Butler Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
Sacramento Kings (-1, 237) at Chicago Bulls
Patrick Williams has been a bit of an up-and-down offensive player throughout his NBA career thus far, as he doesn’t always bring it from an intensity perspective. However, he had 10 points and six rebounds when he faced this Kings team earlier in the year, and he played 33 minutes in that game. We’re confident the 21-year-old will end up getting at least 30 minutes tonight, as Chicago will desperately need his defense. And that would mean Williams would have a good chance at hitting 13 combined points and rebounds tonight, which is all we need out of him.
Tonight’s meeting between the Kings and Bulls has the highest point total on the board, so there should be plenty of shots to go around for both teams. That bodes well for Williams’ ability to hit this total, and it really wouldn’t be all that surprising if he were to cash this one on points alone. Since January 1st, Williams has had 11 games in which he has had at least 13 points, so it’s not out of the question. He’s also capable of having some big rebounding games, especially in a fast-paced contest.
This is just a swing on a talented player to simply not be invisible in a big game. We can live with losing this one, but it might make it a little hard to trust Williams in the future if we do.
Bet: Williams Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, 237)
Our Daily Prop Analyzer has Paul George going over the 5.5-rebound total in 32 of the 52 games in which we’ve tracked it, which is good for a 61.5% success rate. That’s very hard to ignore in a matchup like this, especially given the way George has been hitting the glass recently. George has had at least seven rebounds in three of his last four games, and he now faces a Warriors team that he had eight boards against on February 14th.
George also happens to be rebounding the basketball a bit better at home, with the forward pulling down 6.4 rebounds per game at Crypto.com Arena. On top of that, George has leveled up his effort in meetings with Pacific Division opponents, as he’s averaging 6.8 rebounds per game against divisional rivals.
We’re just expecting a locked-in version of George in a game in which Los Angeles will be looking to make a statement. That should mean more activity all over the floor.
Bet: George Over 5.5 Rebounds (-155)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +425 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
