The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, February 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 20-17. Here are today’s results: 

– SACRAMENTO (+2.5 vs. GSW)
Several scheduling situations favor SAC + underdogs have done well in the head-to-head series recently 

– MILWAUKEE (-6 at WSH)
Multiple trends/systems fade WSH (including extreme stats and WSH-specific scheduling trends)

– MIN-HOU UNDER 218.5
Several scheduling situations favor Under + Makinen Effective Strength Ratings favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Favorites are 16-3 ATS in the last 19 of the DET-SAS non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 at SAS) 

* Under the total was 14-1 (93.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 4th Home in 10+ Days game versus a road team on 3rd in 8+ Days scenario.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-DAL (o/u at 238), MIN-HOU (o/u at 218), MIL-WSH (o/u at 230) 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 35-12 SU and 32-13-2 ATS (71.1%) in their last 47 tries.

System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 at TOR)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, OKLAHOMA CITY, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, TORONTO, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, OKLAHOMA CITY, GOLDEN STATE 

Here are some more specific money line angles: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DALLAS ML, UTAH ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-CLE, DET-SAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-WSH, GSW-SAC
UNDER – DET-SAS, OKC-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-TOR, MIN-HOU

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 49-25 SU and 43-28-3 ATS (60.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/21: SACRAMENTO vs. Golden State
2/21: TORONTO vs. Miami
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO (+2.5 vs. GSW), TORONTO (+3 vs. MIA) 

* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 28-14 SU and 24-11-7 ATS (68.6%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/21: SACRAMENTO vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+2.5 vs. GSW)

* Under the total was 99-56 (63.9%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all nine games today 

* Under the total was 62-38 (62%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all nine games today 

* Under the total was 29-14 (67.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/21: Under the total in DALLAS-NEW ORLEANS
2/21: Under the total in HOUSTON-MINNESOTA
2/21: Under the total in WASHINGTON-MILWAUKEE
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-DAL (o/u at 238), MIN-HOU (o/u at 218), MIL-WSH (o/u at 230) 

* Under the total was 19-6 (76%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/21: Under the total in DALLAS-NEW ORLEANS
2/21: Under the total in HOUSTON-MINNESOTA
2/21: Under the total in WASHINGTON-MILWAUKEE
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-DAL (o/u at 238), MIN-HOU (o/u at 218), MIL-WSH (o/u at 230) 

* Under the total was 14-1 (93.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 4th Home in 10+ Days game versus a road team on 3rd in 8+ Days scenario.
2/21: Under the total in DALLAS-NEW ORLEANS
2/21: Under the total in HOUSTON-MINNESOTA
2/21: Under the total in WASHINGTON-MILWAUKEE
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-DAL (o/u at 238), MIN-HOU (o/u at 218), MIL-WSH (o/u at 230)

* WASHINGTON is on 2-17 SU and 7-12 ATS skid when playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game
2/21: Fade WASHINGTON vs. Milwaukee
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6 vs. MIL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 142-50 SU and 114-77-1 ATS (59.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8.5 vs. NYK) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 98-81 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 195-163 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-199 (56.7%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-UTA (o/u at 237.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 58-89 SU and 61-81-5 ATS (43%) slide, including 32-50-3 ATS in the L85 games and 20-35 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+8.5 at CLE) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 122-124 SU but 127-104-5 ATS (55%), including 90-55-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6 vs MIL) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 96-59 SU and 92-61-2 ATS (60.1%) in that follow-up try over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15 at UTA)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 289-249 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-ORL (o/u at 225.5), DET-SAS (o/u at 234.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-283 SU and 244-301-7 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+6 vs. MIL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 298-279 SU but 257-302-16 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+6 vs. MIL), NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at DAL)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 150-169 SU and 144-166-9 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at DAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 35-12 SU and 32-13-2 ATS (71.1%) in their last 47 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 at TOR)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+3.3)
2. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+2.2)
3. TORONTO +3 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+1.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15 (+1.5)
3. HOUSTON -3.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+3.6)
SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+3.6)
3. ORLANDO +3.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15 (+2.9)
2. HOUSTON -3.5 (+2.7)
3. DALLAS -5.5 (+2.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NYK-CLE OVER 242 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-SAC UNDER 238 (-2.6)
2. MIN-HOU UNDER 218.5 (-2.0)
3. OKC-UTA UNDER 236 (-1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+3.2)
2. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+2.3)
3. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15 (+2.4)
2. HOUSTON -3.5 (+1.8)
3. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-WSH OVER 229.5 (+4.4)
2. MIA-TOR OVER 219 (+1.7)
3. OKC-UTA OVER 236 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-SAC UNDER 238 (-3.5)
2. DET-SAS UNDER 236.5 (-2.3)
3. NYK-CLE UNDER 242 (-2.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(503) MILWAUKEE at (504) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the MIL-WSH series, but did go Under last time out
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(505) NEW YORK at (506) CLEVELAND
* Under the total has converted in nine straight games between NYK and CLE
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(509) DETROIT at (510) SAN ANTONIO
* Favorites are 16-3 ATS in the last 19 of the DET-SAS non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS 

(511) NEW ORLEANS at (512) DALLAS
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the NOP-DAL divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(513) MINNESOTA at (514) HOUSTON
* MINNESOTA is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games versus Houston
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS 

(515) OKLAHOMA CITY at (516) UTAH
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the OKC-UTA divisional series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(517) GOLDEN STATE at (518) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs have covered nine straight ATS in the GSW-SAC divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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