The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems, and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 31, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results: 

-TORONTO (-4 vs CHI)
Two DK betting splits systems favor Toronto 

-DETROIT (+1 vs DAL)
Multiple systems fading Dallas off their scoring outburst last game

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 4-17 SU and 2-18-1 ATS skid when playing a 4th Straight Road game
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3 at SAS)

* Favorites are on runs of 14-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the CHI-TOR series at Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-4 vs. CHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, DENVER, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: In a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, DENVER, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX 

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – TORONTO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CLIPPERS ML, BOSTON ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-CHA, CHI-TOR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-CHA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-TOR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Under the total was 115-88-1 (56.7%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/31: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-DENVER
1/31: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-PHOENIX
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-PHI (o/u at 234), PHX-GSW (o/u at 229) 

* CHARLOTTE is 33-82 SU and 44-67-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
1/31: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. La Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+13 vs LAC) 

* DENVER is on a 3-13 ATS skid (8-8 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
1/31: Fade DENVER at Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-9.5 at PHI) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 4-17 SU and 2-18-1 ATS skid when playing a 4th Straight Road game
1/31: Fade MILWAUKEE at San Antonio
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3 at SAS)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 218-38 SU but just 122-129-5 ATS (48.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): LA CLIPPERS (-13 at CHA), BOSTON (-11 at NOP) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-80 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 184-157 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 252-195 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAC-CHA (o/u at 210.5), BOS-NOP (o/u at 232.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 224-126 SU but 159-184-7 ATS (46.4%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 32-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1 at DET)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 144-85 SU but 103-122-4 ATS (45.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is an 88-108 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1 at DET) 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 69-52 SU and 66-53-2 ATS (55.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1 at DET)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 257-134 SU but just 170-209-12 ATS (44.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1 at DET) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 266-276 SU and 242-293-7 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-13 at CHA) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 295-269 SU but 252-295-15 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1 at DET)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 149-167 SU and 143-164-9 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1 at DET)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+2.8)
2. GOLDEN STATE +1.5 (+2.6)
3. SAN ANTONIO +3 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -13 (+2.5)
2. BOSTON -11 (+0.8)
3. TORONTO -4 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +11 (+3.7)
2. SAN ANTONIO +3 (+2.1)
3. GOLDEN STATE +1.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS -13 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-DET OVER 229.5 (+1.0)
2. LAC-CHA OVER 209 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). DEN-PHI UNDER 234 (-1.0)
CHI-TOR UNDER 232.5 (-1.0)
3. BOS-NOP UNDER 233.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +1.5 (+2.5)
2. SAN ANTONIO +3 (+1.6)
3. DETROIT +1 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -11 (+2.7)
2. LA CLIPPERS -13 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-CHA OVER 209 (+5.5)
2. DAL-DET OVER 229.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-NOP UNDER 233.5 (-2.1)
2. PHX-GSW UNDER 229 (-1.8)
3. MIL-SAS UNDER 235.5 (-1.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(533) LA CLIPPERS at (534) CHARLOTTE
* Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the LAC-CHA non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS 

(535) DALLAS at (536) DETROIT
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the DAL-DET series at Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* Road teams are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 matchups between Dallas and Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS 

(537) DENVER at (538) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Denver
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(539) CHICAGO at (540) TORONTO
* Favorites are on runs of 14-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the CHI-TOR series at Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS 

(541) MILWAUKEE at (542) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is 5-1 ATS in the last six games when hosting Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(543) BOSTON at (544) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the BOS-NOP non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS 

(545) PHOENIX at (546) GOLDEN STATE
* Underdogs are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the PHX-GSW divisional rivalry at Golden State
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR