The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, October 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is 18-5 in the DEN-TOR series since the start of the 2012-13 season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in DEN-TOR (o/u at 218.5)

* Favorites have covered 10 straight ATS in the CHI-MEM series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-6.5 vs. CHI)

-Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 47-81 SU and 50-74-4 ATS (40.3%) slide, including 21-43-2 ATS in the last 66 games and 17-30 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+7 at ORL)

* New York is 21-7 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on Two Days Rest
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYK (o/u at 222)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DETROIT, DENVER, NEW YORK, CHICAGO, PHOENIX, SACRAMENTO

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, DETROIT, DENVER, HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DETROIT, DENVER, NEW YORK, CHICAGO, PHOENIX, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO, DETROIT, BOSTON, NEW YORK, DALLAS, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.

System Match (PLAY ALL on ML): ATLANTA, HOUSTON, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority HANDLE was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and a ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.

System Match (PLAY ALL on ML): INDIANA, DETROIT, LA LAKERS, PORTLAND

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-MIA, UTA-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-ATL, DET-MIA, POR-SAC
UNDER – UTA-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAS

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Hosts playing in an away-to-home back-to-back game scenario are 13-23 SU and 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) since the start of last season, hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-7.5 vs. WSH)

* Over the total was 42-30 (58.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a home-to-away back-to-back game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-ATL (o/u at 233.5)

* Over the total is 24-12 (66.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-ATL (o/u at 233.5) 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* LA LAKERS are on a 14-25 SU and 13-25-1 ATS skid entering the 2024-25 season playing a 3rd in 4 Days game
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+3.5 at PHX) 

* ATLANTA is 38-18 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-ATL (o/u at 233.5) 

* HOUSTON is on a 34-13 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAS (o/u at 220) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 12-1 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an away-to-away back-to-back scheduling scenario
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-BOS (o/u at 233.5)

* NEW YORK is 21-7 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on Two Days Rest
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYK (o/u at 222)  

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 130-44 SU and 107-66-1 ATS (61.8%) run.
System Matches (FADE): PHOENIX (*if they become favored in this line range, -3.5 currently)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 62-22 SU & 55-28-1 ATS (66.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-9 at TOR), HOUSTON (-2.5 at SAS) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 84-69 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 159-132 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-154 (59.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIL-BOS, UTA-DAL, POR-SAC

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 47-81 SU and 50-74-4 ATS (40.3%) slide, including 21-43-2 ATS in the last 66 games and 17-30 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+7 at ORL)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 109-115 SU but 115-95-4 ATS (54.8%), including 83-49-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-12.5 vs. POR) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 253-197 SU but 194-244-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 35-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs. CLE)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 92-54 SU and 87-57-2 ATS (60.4%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2.5 at SAS) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 267-219 (54.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-PHX (o/u at 227.5) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 240-236 SU and 212-251-11 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10 vs. MIL) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA +7 (+2.1)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+1.7)
3(tie). LA LAKERS +4 (+1.1)
CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -11.5 (+1.0)
2. ATLANTA -7.5 (+0.8)
3. SACRAMENTO -12.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +9 (+3.1)
2. PORTLAND +12.5 (+2.7)
3. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -9.5 (+2.4)
2. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+0.3)
3. HOUSTON -2.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-MIA OVER 220 (+1.7)
2. UTA-DAL OVER 232 (+0.9)
3. MIL-BOS OVER 232 (+0.5)

 Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-MEM UNDER 232.5 (-5.2)
2. POR-SAC UNDER 230 (-4.6)
3. CLE-NYK UNDER 223 (-1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+2.2)
2. DETROIT +9 (+1.8)
3. INDIANA +7 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -11.5 (+1.7)
2. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+1.2)
3. SACRAMENTO -12.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-SAS OVER 218.5 (+4.3)
2. UTA-DAL OVER 232 (+1.8)
3. LAL-PHX OVER 228 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-MEM UNDER 232.5 (-6.9)
2. POR-SAC UNDER 230 (-5.4)
3. CLE-NYK UNDER 223 (-3.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(515) DETROIT at (516) MIAMI
* Detroit is on runs of 6-0-1 ATS when at Miami and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 overall head-to-head meetings with MIA
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+8.5 at MIA)

(517) DENVER at (518) TORONTO
* Over the total is 18-5 in the DEN-TOR series since the start of the 2012-13 season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 218.5)

* Road teams have covered five of the last six in the series
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-9 at TOR) 

(519) MILWAUKEE at (520) BOSTON
* MILWAUKEE covered all four head-to-head meetings last season
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+10 at BOS) 

(521) CLEVELAND at (522) NEW YORK
* Under the total has hit in the last eight meetings between CLE and NYK
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 222)

* NEW YORK is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings with CLE
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-2.5 vs. CLE)

(523) HOUSTON at (524) SAN ANTONIO
* Home teams have covered six straight ATS in the HOU-SAS series
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 vs. HOU)

(525) CHICAGO at (526) MEMPHIS
* Favorites have covered 10 straight ATS in the CHI-MEM series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-6.5 vs. CHI)

(529) LA LAKERS at (530) PHOENIX
* Favorites are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between LAL and PHX
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-3.5 vs. LAL)

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