Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, February 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 14-10. Here are today’s results:
– CHARLOTTE (+10 at DET)
DK Betting Splits #4 favors Charlotte + CHA is underpriced in all three ratings
– TOR-HOU (o/u at 223.5)
Scheduling situation favors Over + recent head-to-head trend favors the Over
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 176-144 SU and 180-131-9 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+10 at DET)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 49-48 SU and 58-35-4 ATS (62.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9 vs TOR)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-MIL, TOR-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 24-35 SU and 22-36-1 ATS (37.9%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
2/9: Fade HOUSTON vs. Toronto
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-9 vs. TOR)
* Over the total is 37-22 (62.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/9: Over the total in HOUSTON-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-HOU (o/u at 223.5)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 44-44 SU and 31-56-1 ATS skid in the last 88 when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/9: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs. PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-31 SU and 44-26-1 ATS in its L71 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/9: PHILADELPHIA at Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at MIL)
* DETROIT is on a 16-7 Under the total run when playing a 3rdStraightHome game
2/9: Under the total in DETROIT-CHARLOTTE
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DET (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-81 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 193-161 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 256-196 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-DET (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 176-144 SU and 180-131-9 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+10 at DET)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 49-48 SU and 58-35-4 ATS (62.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9 vs TOR)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHARLOTTE +10 (+2.9)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+0.1)
HOUSTON -9 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +10 (+3.0)
2. MILWAUKEE +1.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-MIL OVER 228 (+0.4)
2. CHA-DET OVER 225.5 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: TOR-HOU UNDER 223.5 (-4.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +10 (+2.5)
2. MILWAUKEE +1.5 (+0.7)
3. TORONTO +9 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-HOU UNDER 223.5 (-5.0)
2. CHA-DET UNDER 225.5 (-0.8)
3. PHI-MIL UNDER 228 (-0.6)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(537) CHARLOTTE at (538) DETROIT
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine games between CHA and DET
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(539) PHILADELPHIA at (540) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE is on runs of 6-0 SU and 4-0 ATS versus Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE
(541) TORONTO at (542) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 games when Houston hosts Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
