Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 17-16. Here are today’s results:
– DALLAS (+1 vs. MIA)
Several scheduling situations favor Dallas + DAL is underpriced in multiple ratings
– HOU-GSW OVER 218
Several scheduling situations favor Over + HOU-GSW is projected to go Over according to Makinen Bettors Ratings
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams are 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 of the LAC-UTA series
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+9.5 vs. LAC)
* Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 66-17 SU and 47-34-2 ATS (58%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at MIN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON, LA CLIPPERS
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – HOUSTON ML, DALLAS ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-HOU
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 83-42 SU and 74-46-5 ATS (61.7%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/13: DALLAS vs. Miami
2/13: HOUSTON vs. Golden State
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-6 vs. GSW), DALLAS (+1 vs. MIA)
* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 32-41 SU but 41-31-3 ATS (56.9%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
2/13: MIAMI at Dallas
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1 at DAL)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 43-46 SU and 49-38-2 ATS (56.3%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over last two seasons.
2/13: HOUSTON vs. Golden State
2/13: NEW ORLEANS vs. Sacramento
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-6 vs. GSW), NEW ORLEANS (+8 vs. SAC)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 39-21 SU and 40-19-1 ATS (67.8%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/13: DALLAS vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+1 vs. MIA)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 23-23 SU and 27-19 ATS (58.7%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4thStraightRoad game.
2/13: HOUSTON vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6 vs. GSW)
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 39-25 SU and 39-22-3 ATS (63.9%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/13: DALLAS vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+1 vs. MIA)
* Over the total was 93-77 (54.7%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/13: Over the total in MIAMI-DALLAS
2/13: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-HOUSTON
2/13: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-NEW ORLEANS
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIA-DAL (o/u at 220.5), GSW-HOU (o/u at 218), SAC-NOP (o/u at 235.5)
* Over the total was 93-66 (58.5%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/13: Over the total in HOUSTON-GOLDEN STATE
2/13: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-SACRAMENTO
System Matches (PLAY OVER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 218), SAC-NOP (o/u at 235.5)
* Over the total was 43-33 (56.6%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/13: Over the total in HOUSTON-GOLDEN STATE
2/13: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-SACRAMENTO
2/13: Over the total in DALLAS-MIAMI
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIA-DAL (o/u at 220.5), GSW-HOU (o/u at 218), SAC-NOP (o/u at 235.5)
* Over the total was 19-9 (67.9%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/13: Over the total in HOUSTON-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 218)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 66-17 SU and 47-34-2 ATS (58%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at MIN)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 229-278-3 ATS (45.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-130 SU and 69-86-5 ATS (44.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+8 vs. SAC), OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at MIN)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). GOLDEN STATE +6 (+1.7)
UTAH +9.5 (+1.7)
3. NEW ORLEANS +8 (+1.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +1 (+2.8)
2. MINNESOTA +7.5 (+1.9)
3. GOLDEN STATE +6 (+1.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS -9.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-DAL OVER 220.5 (+3.9)
2. SAC-NOP OVER 235.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-MIN UNDER 222.5 (-2.0)
2. GSW-HOU UNDER 218 (-0.5)
3. LAC-UTA UNDER 225 (-0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +1 (+2.1)
2. GOLDEN STATE +6 (+1.1)
3. NEW ORLEANS +8 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS -9.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-DAL OVER 220.5 (+4.4)
2. SAC-NOP OVER 235.5 (+2.4)
3. GSW-HOU OVER 218 (+0.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKC-MIN UNDER 222.5 (-2.3)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(531) SACRAMENTO at (532) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the SAC-NOP series at New Orleans
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(533) GOLDEN STATE at (534) HOUSTON
* GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine games hosting Houston
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE
(537) OKLAHOMA CITY at (538) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the OKC-MIN divisional series at Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(539) LA CLIPPERS at (540) UTAH
* Home teams are 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 of the LAC-UTA series
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
