Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 136-97 SU and 131-95-7 ATS (58%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 at POR)
* HOUSTON is on a 34-15 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAC (o/u at 225.5)
* Double-digit NBA favorites in non-Conference games have gone 204-38 SU but just 113-124-5 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-11.5 at WSH)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, LA CLIPPERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, CLEVELAND ML, HOUSTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-SAC, LAC-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-WSH
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Over the total was 52-43 (54.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/16: Over the total in PORTLAND-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-POR (o/u at 220)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 17-26 SU and 11-32 ATS skid in its last 43 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
1/16: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Portland
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 at POR)
* PORTLAND is 27-64 SU and 33-58 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on OneDayRest
1/16: Fade PORTLAND vs. La Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+6.5 vs. LAC)
* HOUSTON is on a 34-15 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
1/16: Over the total in HOUSTON-SACRAMENTO
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAC (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 204-38 SU but just 113-124-5 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-11.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 94-79 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 177-150 (54.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 244-191 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-WSH (o/u at 231)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 136-97 SU and 131-95-7 ATS (58%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 at POR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (181-198 ATS, 47.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (243-241 ATS, 50.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 vs. PHX)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 218-269-3 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-121 SU and 62-81-5 ATS (43.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 vs. PHX)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+3.0)
2. INDIANA +3 (+1.9)
3. HOUSTON +4 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+1.9)
2. PORTLAND +6.5 (+1.7)
3. HOUSTON +4 (+1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT -3 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHX-WSH OVER 231 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-SAC UNDER 225.5 (-2.5)
2. CLE-OKC UNDER 233 (-1.8)
3. IND-DET UNDER 228 (-0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+4.3)
2. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+2.1)
3. INDIANA +3 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -6.5 (+1.1)
2. SACRAMENTO -4 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHX-WSH OVER 231 (+3.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-OKC UNDER 233 (-1.6)
2. IND-DET UNDER 228 (-1.4)
3. LAC-POR UNDER 220 (-0.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(523) INDIANA at (524) DETROIT
* INDIANA is 4-1 ATS in the last five visits to Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(525) PHOENIX at (526) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in last six games between PHX and WSH at Washington
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(529) LA CLIPPERS at (530) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the LAC-POR series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(531) HOUSTON at (532) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the HOU-SAC series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
