Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, October 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 6-1 in the SAC-UTA series since 2020
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234.5)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1 1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). Most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+4.5 vs DEN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 131-44 SU and 107-67-1 ATS (61.5%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 47-82 SU and 51-74-4 ATS (40.8%) slide, including 22-43-2 ATS in the last 67 games and 17-30 ATS when a pick-’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at BKN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of noon ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, SACRAMENTO, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1 1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare games.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a moneyline wager over the last 1 1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. Most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-MIN, SAC-UTA, NOP-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER ALL): DEN-BKN, NOP-GSW
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing on two days’ rest are 31-9 SU and 24-15-1 ATS (61.5%) hosting teams playing in a home-to-away back-to-back game over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)
* DALLAS was 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS last season when playing on the road in its third game in four days.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5 at MIN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 131-44 SU and 107-67-1 ATS (61.5%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 92-58 SU and 89-58-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER (-4.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 64-22 SU and 56-29-1 ATS (65.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-4.5 at BKN), SACRAMENTO (-6.5 at UTA)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 47-82 SU and 51-74-4 ATS (40.8%) slide, including 22-43-2 ATS in the last 67 games and 17-30 ATS when a pick-’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at BKN)
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 238-128 SU but just 156-199-11 ATS (43.9%) in the next game when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at BKN)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next game for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 253-198 SU but 194-245-12 ATS (44.2%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 35-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+4.5 vs DEN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +6.5 (+2.7)
2. GOLDEN STATE +1.5 (+0.4)
3. DALLAS +5 (+0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DENVER -4.5 (+3.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +6.5 (+4.0)
2. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+0.7)
3. GOLDEN STATE +1.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-MIN OVER 221.5 (+2.9)
2. NOP-GSW OVER 217.5 (+2.2)
3. SAC-UTA OVER 234.5 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DEN-BKN UNDER 218.5 (-0.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: UTAH +6.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -4.5 (+2.8)
2. MINNESOTA -5 (+0.6)
3. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NOP-GSW OVER 217.5 (+4.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-MIN UNDER 221.5 (-5.4)
2. DEN-BKN UNDER 218.5 (-1.6)
3. SAC-UTA UNDER 234.5 (-1.3)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(533) DENVER at (534) BROOKLYN
* DENVER is 5-1 ATS in the series with Brooklyn since 2022
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-4.5 at BKN)
(535) DALLAS at (536) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games in the DAL-MIN series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+5 at MIN)
(537) SACRAMENTO at (538) UTAH
* Over the total is 6-1 in the series since 2020
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234.5)
(539) NEW ORLEANS at (540) GOLDEN STATE
* Under the total is 12-4 in the last 16 games between NOP and GSW
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 217.5)
