The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA First-Round Game Threes. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game Threes as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Thursday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, PHILADELPHIA, INDIANA, DALLAS, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, PHILADELPHIA, LA LAKERS, INDIANA, DALLAS, PHOENIX, OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, INDIANA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an R.O.I. of -38.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, DENVER ML, INDIANA ML, DALLAS ML, PHOENIX ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, BOSTON ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-ORL, DEN-LAL, MIL-IND, LAC-DAL, OKC-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: NYK-PHI, DEN-LAL, MIN-PHX, OKC-NOP, BOS-MIA
PLAY UNDER in: CLE-ORL, LAC-DAL

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that easily sweep through a first-round series. Take a look at some of these series NBA betting trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number. Also, both Chicago and Miami had better last 10 ATS records than Boston & New York.

• The last 10 games outright records can also be an indicator of a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In ten of the last 17 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. Again, this could be an issue for New York against Philadelphia. The LA Lakers also enjoy this edge over Denver.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• There has been a significant benchmark in the success of the lower seeded team at 10 wins less than the opponent over the last 10 playoff years. If more than 10 regular season wins separate the teams, only Miami in 2023 has won a series, and the lesser seeds are averaging just 1.26 game wins per series, with eight sweeps in 32 series. Additionally, only four other teams pushed a series to seven games. For 2024, the Celtics are qualifiers.

• When 10 or fewer wins have separated the teams, the worse-seeded team won an average of 2.313 games per series, including 14 of those 48 series wins. Only six times did a team get swept, and only ten other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in both conferences would appear to have the potential to each win at least two games in their respective series.

• Only four of the last 27 playoff better seeds that won at least four more games against the spread in the regular season have lost a series. The 23 winning teams lost only 1.35 games per series as well. In essence, it is important that teams played well against the spread in the regular season. The Minnesota-Phoenix matchup is the only one that qualifies as of Thursday 4/18.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks and Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024, Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

• Alternatively, when there were five games or better records in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. Boston will hold this edge over any of its first-round opponents. New York would have it over Philadelphia.

• There is an interesting benchmark for worse-seeded teams at 48 wins (59%+) or more. Those that reach that regular season mark have gone 6-19 in series and 63-84 (42.9%) in individual games over the last 10 postseasons. Those that have 58% or less (47-35 in full season) are just 9-46 in series’ and 91-198 (31.5%) in individual games. All the potential first-round “underdogs” that won 48 games are in the West: New Orleans, LA Lakers, Dallas, and Phoenix.

• Of the last 13 better seed sweeps, all 13 had better records in the second half of the season, only one had a worse record in last 20 games, and only three won fewer of their last 10 games. According to this, Boston and Oklahoma City have the best chance at first-round sweeps, as they are the only teams with advantages over their opponents in all three varying time ranges.

First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• Big favorites have held a significant edge – Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first-round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 85-14 SU and 58-41 ATS (58.6%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 at MIA)

• Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet – Only 10 of the last 52 road favorites of 4.5-points or more have lost outright, going 42-10 SU and 34-17-1 ATS (66.7%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 at MIA)

• First-round home favorites of four points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as over the last 10 playoff seasons, they are just 38-35 SU and 29-41-1 ATS (41.4%).
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-2 vs CLE), FADE PHOENIX (-4 vs MIN)

• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders and 37 Overs (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 11 Unders and five Overs.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first-round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, the Under total is 60-35-3 (63.2%). In all games with totals above 218, the Over total is 69-59-2 (53.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIL-IND
PLAY UNDER in the rest

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 73-40 SU and 60-53 ATS (53.1%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 77-65 SU and 65-74-3 ATS (46.8%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING – INDIANA, DALLAS, MIAMI
CONSIDER FADING – ORLANDO, PHILADELPHIA, LA LAKERS, PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS

• Blowout losses carry over—There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 75-133 SU and 89-116-3 ATS (43.4%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home. This year so far, they are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-2 vs. CLE), FADE MILWAUKEE (+5 at IND), FADE PHOENIX (-4 vs. MIN), FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs. OKC), FADE BOSTON (-9 at MIA)

• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by three points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 37-13 SU and 33-15-2 ATS (68.8%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 23-5 SU and 20-6-2 ATS (83.3%) surge! Of note, only three of last season’s 43 first-round games were decided by three points or fewer.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-5 vs NYK), PLAY LA LAKERS (+1 vs DEN), PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 at DAL)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Since 2019, the first-round Game Three home teams have been 11-21 SU and 13-19 ATS (40.6%). However, their 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS performance in 2023 was their best in several years.
System Matches: FADE ALL EIGHT HOME teams

• The better Game Three home teams are those coming off a win in Game Two. They are 9-9 SU and 8-10 ATS (44.4%) in their last 18 tries, while those that lost in Game Two are on a 9-17 SU and 11-15 ATS (42.3%) skid.
System Matches: FADE – ORLANDO, PHILADELPHIA, LA LAKERS, PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS

• Game Three point spreads most often tell the story, as hosts of 4.5 points or more are on a 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS (85.7%) stretch since 2013, while home dogs of 4.5 points or more are just 3-16 SU and 7-11-1 ATS (38.9%) in that same span.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-5 vs. NYK), PLAY INDIANA (-5 vs. MIL), PLAY DALLAS (-4.5 vs. LAC)
FADE MIAMI (+9 vs. BOS)

• Game Three home teams in the +4 to -4 line range are currently on a brutal skid of 7-17 SU and 6-17-1 ATS (26.1%) since 2017.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-2 vs. CLE), FADE LA LAKERS (+1 vs. DEN), FADE PHOENIX (-4 vs. MIN), FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs. OKC)

Trends by Seed Number

• #1 seeds are good bets when underrated – #1 seeds when in the small favorite (-2.5 or less) or underdog role are 9-7 SU and ATS (56.3%) since 2013 in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 11-5 Under the total (68.8%) in those games.
System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-1 at NOP), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 211)

• #3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses – Third-seeded teams are on a run of 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) on the road after losing the prior game in a first round series.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+5 at IND)

• #4 seeds have been brutal in Games Three and Four, with a 14-30 SU and 16-27-1 ATS (37.2%) record in such games of their first-round series since 2013.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+2 at ORL), FADE LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 at DAL)

• #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 25-31 SU and 20-36 ATS (35.7%) since 2013 in same-series games following a loss.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 at DAL)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first-round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 102-27 SU and 101-28 ATS (78.3%) run over the last five postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last five first-round playoff seasons are 81-14 SU and 78-15-2 ATS (83.9%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 12-7 SU and ATS (63.2%).
4/26 vs Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-5 vs MIL)

PHOENIX is 12-6-1 Over the total (66.7%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
4/26 vs Minnesota
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 207)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* DALLAS is 15-12 SU and 7-18 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario over the last three seasons
4/26 vs. LA Clippers
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-4.5 vs LAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 122-35 SU and 101-56 ATS (64.3%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (-4.5 vs LAC)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 130-45 SU and 108-65-2 ATS (62.4%) in their last 175 tries.
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-2 vs CLE)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 234-126 SU but just 154-195-11 ATS (44.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-1 at LAL)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 249-192 SU but 190-239-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 34-61 ATS.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 88-50 SU and 82-54-2 ATS (60.3%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+5 at IND)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-244 SU and 212-258-5 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 237-231 SU and 210-245-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 147-54 SU and 113-86-2 ATS (56.8%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons. (BOS 4/27)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-9 at MIA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 190-237 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (+5 at PHI), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-1 at NOP)

Game Three NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game 3 Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +5.5 (+4.2), 2. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+2.7), 3. MINNESOTA +4 (+1.3)

Game 3 Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA -5 (+3.0), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+1.0), 3. DALLAS -4.5 (+0.5)

Game 3 Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+4.5), 2. NEW YORK +5.5 (+3.1), 3. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+0.9)

Game 3 Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA -5 (+2.1), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+0.4), 3. BOSTON -9 (+0.2)

Game 3 Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-DAL OVER 211 (+4.2), 2. OKC-NOP OVER 209.5 (+3.4), 3. MIL-IND OVER 222.5 (+2.4)

Game 3 Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE

Game 3 Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +5.5 (+4.7), 2. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+2.4), 3. MIAMI +9 (+2.2)

Game 3 Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA -5 (+2.2), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+1.2), 3. DALLAS -4.5 (+0.3)

Game 3 Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-IND OVER 222.5 (+6.2), 2. LAC-DAL OVER 211 (+5.6), 3. DEN-LAL OVER 216.5 (+5.5)

Game 3 Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Thursday, April 25, 2024

(525) CLEVELAND at (526) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 8-2 in the last 10 games in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(527) NEW YORK at (528) PHILADELPHIA
* Under the total is 5-2 since 2021 in the head-to-head series at PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(529) DENVER at (530) LA LAKERS
* DENVER has won the last four ATS at LAL
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

Friday, April 26, 2024

(537) MINNESOTA at (538) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX has won six straight ATS at home vs. MIN
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(535) LA CLIPPERS at (536) DALLAS
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(533) MILWAUKEE at (534) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine games vs. MIL
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

* Over the total is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

Saturday, April 27, 2024

(543) OKLAHOMA CITY at (544) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams are 15-3 ATS in the last 18 head-to-head meetings (including 9-1 ATS in the last 10)
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(545) BOSTON at (546) MIAMI
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head series at MIAMI
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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