The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Second Round Game Twos. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following system shows some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an ROI of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until somethings changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-NYK, DAL-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: IND-NYK
PLAY OVER in: CLE-BOS, DAL-OKC

As I reasoned in the first-round article from a couple weeks back, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively which favorites will end a series quickly can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these series NBA betting trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There have been 14 second-round series over the last 10 playoff seasons to last five games or less, only two in upset fashion. In all but one of those 20 series the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.

• There have been 19 second round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within five of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the higher-seeded team winning 10 times (64 individual wins) and the lower seed winning 8 times (53 individual wins).

• In the 21 other series where the regular season won-lost total in +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 16-5 in series wins and 73-43 in individual wins. The most recent of those five series losses occurred in 2022, when Dallas edged Phoenix 4-3.

• Excluding the results of the 2020 season which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 2-16 in series and 33-67 in individual games since 2014. Again, Phoenix in 2022 was the last team to lose in this situation.

• There is advantage to playing shorter series in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second round series record of 8-5 since 2014, with an individual game mark of 38-26.

• It hasn’t been a real detriment to see a first-round series be pushed to seven games for teams in the second round. These teams are 8-8 in series and 47-46 in individual games since 2014. Heading into this season, only two first-round series over the previous three playoff seasons went the distance.

• Don’t overestimate situations when the worse-seeded team had a better second-half regular season record since they have only won once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.

• Similarly, worse-seeded teams that had better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared that well either. They are just 3-13 in series record and 31-56 in individual games.

Scoring Trends

– It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven that 112 points is the benchmark for second-round success. Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have gone 105-25 SU and 100-29-1 ATS (77.5%).

– Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark. Second-round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 21-103 SU and 26-97-1 ATS (21.1%) over the last seven seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

– Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 11-5 SU but just 3-13 ATS (18.8%) since 2016. This is in direct contrast to the first-round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 62-40-1 ATS (60.8%) in that span.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-13.5 vs CLE)

Last Game Trends

– Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 6-21 SU and 7-20 ATS (25.9%) in the follow-up contests in their last 27 playoff tries.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (+4.5 at NYK), FADE CLEVELAND (+13.5 at BOS), FADE DALLAS (+5 at OKC)

– Blowout losses have been demoralizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 15 points or more in one game follow that up with just an 8-13 SU and 7-14 ATS (33.3%) record over the last three postseasons.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+13.5 at BOS), FADE DALLAS (+5 at OKC)

  • There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10-points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 29-15-1 Under (65.9%) the total in the last 45.
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 219)

Trends by Game Number

– -Home teams have dominated the last three years of Game Two second-round action, going 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS (91.7%).
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-4.5 vs. IND), PLAY BOSTON (-13.5 vs. CLE), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 vs. DAL)

– Smaller home favorites get it done in Game Twos. Home favorites of seven points or less have gone 18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) in their last 21 chances.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-4.5 vs IND), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 vs DAL)

Trends by Seed Number

– After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 46-33 SU and 40-38-1 ATS (51.3%) in their last 79 second-round playoff games.

– #1 seeds are on an 11-1 SU and ATS (91.7%) at home in the last 2+ seasons in the second round, slowing a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-13.5 vs. CLE), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 vs. DAL)

-#1 seeds have capitalized on momentum well going 19-11 SU and ATS (63.3%) when coming off a same series win.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-13.5 vs. CLE), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 vs. DAL)

– Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 10-32 SU and 13-28-1 ATS (31.7%) as such since 2015.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+13.5 at BOS)

– Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 10-22 SU and ATS (31.3%) coming back after a same-series defeat since 2014.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+13.5 at BOS)

– Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 14-32 SU and 22-24 ATS (47.8%) in their second-round games over the last nine seasons when not matched up against another upset winner.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+4.5 at NYK), FADE DALLAS (+5 at OKC)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM-SPECIFIC SCHEDULING TRENDS FOR GAME 2

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 125-38 SU and 104-59 ATS (63.8%) run.
System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 vs DAL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 83-69 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 222-152 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-BOS (o/u at 212)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 91-16 SU but 47-58-3 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-13.5 vs CLE)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 193-238 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 43-61 ATS (41.3%) in the next game, including 19-33 ATS (36.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 vs DAL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND +13.5 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -5 (+1.1), 2. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND +13.5 (+2.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -4.5 (+1.1), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CLE-BOS UNDER 212 (-0.6) and DAL-OKC UNDER 218.5 (-0.6), 3. IND-NYK UNDER 219 (-0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND +13.5 (+3.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -5 (+1.1), 2. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-OKC UNDER 218.5 (-3.8), 2. CLE-BOS UNDER 212 (-0.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

(561) INDIANA at (562) NEW YORK
* Favorites have covered 11 of the last 13 ATS in head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

Thursday, May 9, 2024

(565) DALLAS at (566) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(567) CLEVELAND at (568) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight of the series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

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