The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Conference Finals Game Threes. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for Game Threes, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10-points or less and playing on the road are just 3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS (35.3%) in conference finals games dating back to 2014.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (+3.5 at DAL)

Teams that lost big in Game Two bounce back well in Game Three – An interesting trend that has developed over the last 10 playoff seasons finds that conference finals Game Three teams that lost Game Two by double-digits are on a surge of 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%).
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+7 vs BOS)

Teams seeded #5 or worse have not won a CF game when favored since prior to 2013 – Teams seeded #5 or lower are have lost their last six games outright and ATS (0%) in the conference finals when favored.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-3.5 vs MIN)

INDIANA is 62-40 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last four seasons
5/25 vs Boston
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MINNESOTA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, MINNESOTA ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIN-DAL

After a second round that produced two Game Sevens and a trio of seed upsets, we have reached the Conference Finals portion of the NBA playoff schedule. We already know that the Finals are scheduled to tip off on Thursday, June 6th, so you will see that last piece in about two weeks. Who will reach the title series? Indiana or Boston? Minnesota or Dallas?

Series Trends

Take a look at some of these series trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date.

• There have been 20 conference finals series over the last 10 playoff seasons, and the better seeds own just an 11-9 edge in series wins and a 63-50 game wins edge during that span. There have been four sweeps, three by the better seed, including Denver over the Lakers last year.

• The last three times that there have been differences of double-digit margins between teams’ regular season wins, the better seed won all three series and was 12-3 in individual games. This is the case for the Boston-Indiana series.

• Winning 70%+ of regular season games is a key benchmark of conference championship series success for better seeds. Those that did and weren’t facing a 70%+ win team are 8-1 in series and 32-16 in individual games. Boston was 78% this season. Those that won fewer than 70% if their regular season games are just 3-6 in their last seven conference finals series (26-27 in games). This will apply to Minnesota.

• There has been a massive advantage of late in analyzing the earlier playoff round performances of the teams in a conference finals series. Teams that played fewer games in the first two rounds, or essentially lost fewer games in those series, are on a 17-1 conference finals series run! Four of the last 22 series matched teams that played equal games. The only team to lose after playing fewer games was Milwaukee in 2019. Considering this information for 2024, both Boston and Minnesota will be owning edges.

• Teams that faced a Game Seven matchup in either of their first two rounds series have won just two of their last 13 conference finals series when not matched up against an opponent that faced a Game Seven itself. This includes Boston’s upset loss a year ago to Miami. For 2024, both Indiana and Minnesota played in Game Sevens this past Sunday. Neither Boston nor Dallas has been tested to that degree yet this playoff season.

Scoring Trends

94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-51 SU and 11-50 ATS (18%) since 2013.

Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 50-5 SU and 49-4-2 ATS (92.5%) over the last 11 seasons. Two of those ATS losses came last year, however.

Trends by Line Range

Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2108 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of five points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 17-13 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%), including 1-6 ATS a year ago.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-7 at IND)

Small home favorites have been minimally profitable, and small road favorites have been very vulnerable – Home favorites of 4.5 points or less are on a 10-8 SU and 9-9 ATS (50%) surge. Road favorites in the same line range are just 8-10 SU and 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) in their last 18 tries.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY DALLAS (-3.5 vs. MIN)

High totals have meant Unders – Of the 45 games in the last nine conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 28 of them have gone Under the total (62.2%). There’s a chance the entire East Finals of 2024 will land in this range.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BOS-IND (o/u at 222.5)

Totals in the 209-216 range have been most apt to see Over results – There have been 31 games in the last 10 conference finals series that have seen totals in this range, and 23 of them have gone Over (74.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIN-DAL (*if total falls into this line range, 208.5 currently)

Totals under 209 have leaned Under – The lowest totals over the last decade in the conference finals, those below 209, are on a 20-19-1 Under (51.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIN-DAL (o/u at 208.5)

Last Game Trends

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last three conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 22-18 SU and 25-14-1 ATS (64.1%) in their 40 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 18-10 Under (64.3%) the total in their next game.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+7 vs BOS), PLAY MINNESOTA (+3.5 at DAL), also PLAY UNDER in MIN-DAL (o/u at 208.5)

Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10 points or less and playing on the road are just 3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS (35.3%) in conference finals games dating back to 2014.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (+3.5 at DAL)

Trends by Game Number

2-0 leads aren’t security in a conference finals series – Game Three conference finals teams are up 2-0 in the series are just 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS (38.5%) in their last 13 tries. However, both Miami and Denver won in this scenario in ’23.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-7 at IND), FADE DALLAS (-3.5 vs MIN)

Teams that lost big in Game Two bounce back well in Game Three – An interesting trend that has developed over the last 10 playoff seasons finds that conference finals Game Three teams that lost Game Two by double-digits are on a surge of 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%).
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+7 vs. BOS)

Trends by Seed Number

Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 26-3 SU and 18-11 ATS (62.1%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7 at IND)

#3/4 seeds in any other line scenario have floundered of late – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 7-24 SU and 10-19-2 ATS (34.5%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 8-15 ATS (34.8%) in their last 23 road conference finals games.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (+3.5 at DAL)

#3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 15-13 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) in their L28 tries.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+3.5 at DAL)

Teams seeded #5 or worse have not won a CF game when favored since prior to 2013 – Teams seeded #5 or lower have lost their last six games outright and ATS (0%) in the conference finals when favored.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-3.5 vs. MIN)

Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 12-12 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in their last 24 tries in the underdog role.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+7 vs. BOS)

#5 & lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #5 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 9-18 SU and 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-3.5 vs. MIN)

INDIANA is 62-40 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
5/25 vs Boston
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS FOR GAME THREE

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS FOR GAME THREE

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 51-15 SU and 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (*if they become favored by 7.5 or more, -7 currently)

Game Three NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game Three UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA +7 (+1.4)

Game Three UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -3.5 (+0.4)

Game Three Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -7 (+1.4), 2. DALLAS -3.5 (+0.2)

Game Three TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-IND OVER 222.5 (+0.9)

Game Three TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-DAL UNDER 208.5 (-0.6)

Game Three UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA +7 (+2.0)

Game Three UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -3.5 (+0.5)

Game Three TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-IND OVER 222.5 (+0.9)

Game Three TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-DAL UNDER 208.5 (-0.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

Saturday, May 25, 2024

(501) INDIANA at (502) BOSTON
* INDIANA has covered four of the last five ATS in the head-to-head series at Indiana
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

* Over the total is 4-0 in the last four of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

Sunday, May 26, 2024

(503) DALLAS at (504) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs have covered four of the last five ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

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