The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Finals Game 5. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for Game 5, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Embarrassing losses have galvanized teams – In the last 10 NBA Finals series’, there have been three games decided by 30-points or more. In all three cases, the team that lost bounced back with an outright and ATS win in the next game, all by double digit margins.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs. DAL)

Game 5 home teams/favorites have struggled since 2015 – Only one of the last seven Game 6 home teams/favorites has covered their point spreads, going 3-4 SU and 1-5-1 ATS (16.7%).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs. DAL)

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 67 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 37 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 23-11-1 (67.6%) run in the last 35 games.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 209.5)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 133-47 SU and 110-68-2 ATS (61.8%) in their last 180 tries.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all successes however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following system shows some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DAL-BOS

Before getting into the specific trends, you should know that three of the last five Finals series have been seed upsets, breaking a streak of five straight prior wins by the better seed. Dallas will attempt to run that to four out of six. Also note that outright winners in the NBA Finals are 54-3-3 ATS (94.7%) over the last 10 seasons, although one of the ATS losses did come last season in Denver’s series-clinching Game 5 victory. This ATS record for outright winners beats every similar study I’ve done in a variety of sports and thus stands as an endorsement for moneyline wagering on underdogs. I’ll get into more of that later.

•  In the last 11 playoff seasons, the better seeds own a 7-3 edge in Finals wins and a 37-23 game wins edge during that span. In 2016, Cleveland and Golden State were both #1 seeds.

• This will be just the second time in 11 seasons that the East representative had a better regular season record. In that time, the team with the better regular season record is 9-2.

• This will be the ninth time since 2013 that one of the teams won at least 10% more games in the regular season. In those other eight recent series’, the series record is 7-1 and the individual game record is 33-16.

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached into the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-33 SU and 7-32-1 ATS (17.9%).

Success accompanies reaching the 115-point mark –Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 115 points or more boast a record of 20-3 SU and 17-3-3 ATS (85%) over the last eight years. If you recall, the magic number for the conference finals was 116 points.

Home teams are a slightly lesser wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 34-27 SU and 29-30-2 ATS (49.2%) since 2013. This includes a 13-17-1 ATS (43.3%) mark since 2018.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs. DAL)

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 15-7 SU and 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) in the last 22 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Winners cover – Over the last 10 seasons, and 60 games, outright winners have gone 54-3-3 ATS (94.7%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 67 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 37 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 23-11-1 (67.6%) run in the last 35 games.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 209.5)

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5-points or more are 25-7 SU and 20-10-2 ATS (66.7%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round if you recall.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Bad shooting games have carried over negative momentum in the Finals – Teams coming off games where they shot less than 41.5% in a NBA Finals game are just 6-14 SU and ATS (30%) outright in their last 20 tries.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Embarrassing losses have galvanized teams – In the last 10 NBA Finals series, there have been three games decided by 30-points or more. In all three cases, the team that lost bounced back with an outright and ATS win in the next game, all by double digit margins.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Game 5 home teams/favorites have struggled since 2015 – Only one of the last seven Game 5 home teams/favorites has covered their point spreads, going 3-4 SU and 1-5-1 ATS (16.7%).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Momentum has been a big factor in Games 5-7– The later a series gets, the more important momentum has become, as teams coming off a double-digit win in an NBA Finals game are 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) in Games 5-7 of a series.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+6.5 at BOS)

(note that this year’s Finals matches a #1 in Boston versus a #5 in Dallas)

Top seeds have been a bankroll drainer – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is just 14-9 SU and 9-11-3 ATS (45%).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs. DAL)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been three teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 4-15 SU and 7-10-2 ATS (41.2%). When coming off wins, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. At home, they are just 1-5 SU and ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-6.5 at BOS)

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been good in Game 3 and later of their respective series, going 10-7 SU and 12-5 ATS (70.6%).
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6.5 at BOS)

Applying Top 2023-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

–  BOSTON is 13-3 SU but 6-10-2 ATS (37.5%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
6/17 vs Dallas
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs. DAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 128-44 SU & 106-65-1 ATS (62%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 133-47 SU and 110-68-2 ATS (61.8%) in their last 180 tries.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Game 5 NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game 5’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -6.5 (+1.4)

Game 5’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS +6.5 (+0.1)

Game 5’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -6.5 (+1.5)

Game 5’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DAL-BOS OVER 209.5 (+2.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Monday, June 17, 2024

(509) DALLAS at (510) BOSTON

* BOSTON is 10-4-1 in last 15 ATS of head-to-head series (6-1-1 in the last eight)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

* Under the total is 10-2-1 in the last 13 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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