The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Finals Game Three. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for Game Three, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 64 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 35 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 21-11-1 (65.6%) run in the last 33 games.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 213)

Game Three has been a momentum squelcher – The team that wins Game Two in the last 10 NBA Finals series has gone just 3-8 SU and ATS (27.3%) in Game Three. All eight of the losses were by double-digit margins as well.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+2.5 at DAL)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been three teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 3-14 SU and 6-9-2 ATS (40%). When coming off wins, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. At home, they are winless, 0-4 SU & ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-2.5 vs BOS)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 43-62-1 ATS (41%) in the next game, including 19-33 ATS (36.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (+2.5 at DAL)

* Under the total is 8-2-1 in last 11 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following system shows some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): DALLAS ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): BOS-DAL

Before getting into the specific NBA betting trends, you should know that three of the last five Finals series have been seed upsets, breaking a streak of five straight prior wins by the better seed. Dallas will attempt to run that to four out of six. Also note that outright winners in the NBA Finals are 52-3-3 ATS (94.4%) over the last 10 seasons, although one of the ATS losses did come last season in Denver’s series-clinching Game Five victory. This ATS record for outright winners beats every similar study I’ve done in a variety of sports and thus stands as an endorsement for moneyline wagering on underdogs. I’ll get into more of that later.

As I reasoned in the first three articles of this package, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly, can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these Finas’ trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date.

• In the last 11 playoff seasons, the better seeds own a 7-3 edge in Finals’ wins and a 36-22 game wins edge during that span. In 2016, Cleveland and Golden State were both #1 seeds.

• This will be just the second time in 11 seasons that the East representative had a better regular season record. In that time, the team with the better regular season record is 9-2.

• This will be the ninth time since 2013 that one of the teams won at least 10% more games in the regular season. In those other eight recent series, the series record is 7-1 and the individual game record is 32-15.

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached into the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-31 SU and 7-30-1 ATS (18.9%).

Success accompanies reaching the 115-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 115 points or more boast a record of 19-3 SU and 16-3-3 ATS over the last eight years. If you recall, the magic number for the conference finals was 116 points.

Home teams are a slightly lesser wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 33-26 SU and 28-29-2 ATS (49.1%) since 2013. This includes a 12-16-1 ATS (42.9%) mark since 2018.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-2.5 vs BOS)

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 15-5 SU and 13-6-1 ATS (68.4%) in the last 20 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-2.5 vs BOS)

Winners cover – Over the last 10 seasons, and 58 games, outright winners have gone 52-3-3 ATS (94.5%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 64 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 35 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 21-11-1 (65.6%) run in the last 33 games.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 213)

Small home favorites have been vulnerable – Again like the conference finals, the record of the last 17 small home favorites (-4 points or less) in the NBA Finals is just 6-11 SU and ATS (35.3%). There were no plays on this between Miami and Denver a year ago.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-2.5 vs BOS)

Game Three has been a momentum squelcher – The team that wins Game Two in the last 10 NBA Finals series has gone just 3-8 SU and ATS (27.3%) in Game Three. All eight of the losses were by double-digit margins as well.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+2.5 at DAL)

(Note that this year’s Finals matches a #1 in Boston versus a #5 in Dallas.)

Top seeds have been a bankroll drainer – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is just 13-8 SU and 8-10-3 ATS (44.4%).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+2.5 at DAL)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been three teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 3-14 SU and 6-9-2 ATS (40%). When coming off wins, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. At home, they are winless, 0-4 SU and ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-2.5 vs BOS)

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been gold in Games Three and later of their respective series, going 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS (73.3%), although Miami was 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS last June.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-2.5 vs. BOS)

* DALLAS is 17-12 SU and 8-19 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario over the last three seasons
6/12 vs. Boston
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-2.5 vs BOS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 194-239-1 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (+2.5 at DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 43-62-1 ATS (41%) in the next game, including 19-33 ATS (36.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (+2.5 at DAL)

Game Three NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game Three UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -2.5 (+0.1)

Game Three UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -2.5 (+1.6)

Game Three TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-DAL UNDER 213 (-1.6)

Game Three UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -2.5 (+0.6)

Game Three TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-DAL UNDER 213 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

(505) BOSTON at (506) DALLAS
* BOSTON is 9-3-1 in the last 13 ATS of the head-to-head series (5-0-1 in the last six)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

* Under the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of the head to head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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