Sacramento Kings season preview
This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.
Kings Betting Odds
NBA Finals: +5500
Conference: +2500
Division: +900
Win Total: 43.5
Playoffs: Yes (-185)
NBA Odds | NBA Betting Splits | NBA Matchups
Team Analysis
Sacramento took the NBA by storm last season when it romped through the regular season, won 48 games and took the third seed in the Western Conference. There are many who believe the Kings – after that incredible season – come into this season disrespected by the betting market. They are 55-1 at DraftKings to win the NBA Finals, and their win total of 44.5 is on par with the Timberwolves, Pelicans and Thunder.
It is easy to see why that would be seen as the market shorting a team that was one game away from a berth in the Western Conference semifinals, but it should be stated how well last season went for Sacramento.
First and foremost, the Kings were very fortunate when it came to player health. They lost the fewest games to injury, according to Man Games Lost which tracks win shares lost due to injured players. Their top eight players in terms of minutes played appeared in at least 73 games last season. That is near-perfect injury luck for a team, and it is unlikely it will repeat itself.
Sacramento also consistently came out on top in games that entered clutch minutes — games within five with five or fewer minutes left — and those wins tend to regress by season. The Kings were 25-19 SU in games that entered clutch time, and they outscored opponents by 10.0 points per 100 possessions in those situations. They led the league in overall field goal percentage in clutch time (50.7%), and De’Aaron Fox even won the inaugural Jerry West Trophy which is given to the best clutch player.
If we factor in a regression of both health and clutch wins then it gets you to where the market has Sacramento heading into the season, and should those two things regress to the mean then the Kings will have to deal with having a subpar defense.
Sacramento finished the regular season 25th in non-garbage time defensive rating after allowing 117.3 points per 100 possessions. Despite having the best offense in the league they only had a +2.4 net rating, thus the massive amounts of clutch games. That defense is not going to get much better this season. So if we get the assumed regression in clutch games (of which the Kings played 44), then the case for a slip down the standings becomes even stronger for Sacramento this season.
Their biggest weakness on defense was rim protection, and it stemmed from having weak perimeter defenders without a rim-protecting center. Opponents took 33.5% of their attempts within four feet against the Kings, and on those attempts, they shot 69.0%, according to Cleaning The Glass. In halfcourt settings, Sacramento allowed the third most points per 100 plays (102.0).
Outscoring opponents in one-possession games on a nightly basis might work over the course of a single season, but it generally isn’t a recipe for long-term success. Still, this offense will be one of the best in the NBA again next season.
Last season when Fox and Domantas Sabonis shared the floor Sacramento averaged 123.8 points per 100 possessions. That offensive rating ranked in the 97th percentile of lineups, according to Cleaning The Glass, and both their turnover rate (12.2%) and effective field goal percentage (58.2%) with those two ranked in the 92nd and 94th percentile respectively. When Malik Monk was added to the mix, that offensive rating was 131.1 which ranked in the 100th percentile.
All three of those offensive dynamos return this season, as does the vast majority of this offense. That should equate to the Kings once again being one of the best offensive teams in the league, but do not get that twisted with being an Over team.
Sacramento was just 40-39-3 to the Over in the regular season, and much of that had to do with some dramatic home and road splits. At home, the Kings were 27-17-1 to the over if you include the postseason series with Golden State. However, they were 16-26-2 to the under on the road, due to a less efficient offense and a much more efficient defense. In fact, they had the eighth-best defensive efficiency away from home this season (113.8).
It seems like an anomaly for a team that is as poor as they are on that end of the floor, but it is something to monitor as we head into the new year.
Win Total Analysis
As previously mentioned, the market clearly believes some regression is heading for Sacramento, and it is right to do so. Injury luck, a winning record in clutch games and unsustainable production in clutch minutes are not replicable season-to-season. The Western Conference is also improved, with teams like the Thunder, Lakers and Suns expected to be improved. This should all lead to a decline in the Kings’ record. They also have an extremely challenging schedule.
Positive Residual has Sacramento with the third-highest strength of schedule in the NBA. The Kings might have the second-most rest advantages this season, but they have the second-most rest disadvantages as well. They are also among the nine teams with 15 back-to-backs on the schedule, and they must travel the fifth most miles in the league.
Nine of their first 14 games are also on the road, meaning those who like Sacramento’s win total to go over could wait until Nov. 28 when they begin a stretch that sees the team play 10 of 11 games at home.
Having said that, this is not a guide that believes the Kings will have an opportunity to go over their win total. There are too many signs of regression for Sacramento this season, the schedule is challenging, and the opposition is better. That all should add up to a depressed record for the Kings this season.
Win Total Recommendation: UNDER 44.5
