Toronto Raptors season preview
This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.
Raptors Betting Odds
NBA Finals: +10000
Conference: +5500
Division: +3500
Win Total: 36.5
Playoffs: Yes (+175)
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Team Analysis
The competitive window is seemingly closing on Toronto, but the front office has been stubborn in accepting the reality of the franchise’s situation.
Fred VanVleet left via free agency, and Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby have contract situations that could end with both doing the same this offseason. Siakam is in the final year of his current deal, and Anunoby has a player option worth just $19.9 million next season, a number he will easily surpass on the open market. Team president Masai Ujiri could decide to keep both through the trade deadline and risk losing three pieces of a championship team for nothing. Or he could ship both off for assets that change the course of this franchise’s rebuild. Either decision will have a massive impact on what Toronto ultimately becomes this season.
The trade deadline is not until February though, so until that time comes this team is still intact and that means analyzing it as currently constructed. The Raptors are a top-heavy team with great potential on defense but seemingly no direction on offense.
Toronto finished last season 12th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency by averaging 115.9 points per 100 possessions. That figure would seemingly undercut my assertion that this team is flawed on that end of the floor, but a simple look under the surface tells us everything we need to know.
The Raptors were just 25th in halfcourt offensive efficiency last season. They averaged just 94.5 points per 100 plays, according to Cleaning The Glass. They circumvented that abysmal rating by relying on offensive rebounding and transition offense. Toronto was third in offensive rebounding rate last season (30.2%), generated the second-most putback points per 100 missed attempts (25.0) and averaged 16.7 second-chance points per game. The Raptors’ ability to crash the glass on the offensive end masked many of the issues it had when games would slow down.
They were also a brilliant transition team. Toronto is second in both points added per 100 transition plays (+3.9) and transition frequency (17.6%). It was particularly effective when running off of forced turnovers. The Raptors led the league in defensive turnover rate (17.2%) – the third consecutive year it has done so – and also led the league in points added per 100 plays in transition off steals (2.7).
Being dominant on the offensive glass while using turnovers to generate offense allowed Toronto to finish well above average in offensive efficiency, but it is not a recipe for long-term success. Nick Nurse is also gone, and he was a brilliant defensive coach who schemed up a defense that thrived on creating havoc. Darko Rajakovic, who was a Memphis assistant last season, is an unknown commodity as head coach. There is certainly a reality in which this team is not the same defensive unit it was under Nurse. If those turnovers start to decline then so too could this offense, as it will not be able to generate the same transition opportunities.
The Raptors are also in desperate need of shooting. They were the third-worst shooting team in the league last season (34.1%), and that will not be improving by much this season. Dennis Schroder, Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes – all projected starters – are all sub-34.0% career 3-point shooters. OG Anunoby (37.5%) and Gary Trent Jr. (38.4%) are the best shooters on the roster. There is obviously hope that rookie Gradey Dick turns out to be a deep threat, but what he will be is currently unknown.
Toronto still has potential on the defensive end – regardless of scheme – due to its personnel. Anunoby is regarded as one of the best individual defenders in the NBA, Siakam has always been a statistical positive on the defensive end, and Barnes has shown real talent on that end of the floor in his young career. Those three alone can raise the defensive floor of this team, but the rest of the depth does have some weak links, which will likely bring down this team’s defensive ceiling.
Under Nurse, the Raptors were a highly regarded team by the market, but that respect was too much. They closed as favorites in 51 games last season and went just 24-27 ATS. Judging by the win total this team will be an average team at best when it comes to the market rating, and rightfully so. By the end of the season, that rating could tank, but it all comes down to what happens with Siakam and Anunoby.
Win Total Analysis
Toronto has been in the mix for the likes of Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard the last two seasons, but neither will be donning a Raptors uniform this season. This team has no discernable direction at this point when it comes to the roster and its future. That is why looking at this team Under the win total makes too much sense.
Ujiri has no real haul of assets, and only Barnes and Dick could be considered potential building blocks for the future. In Barnes specifically, they have a player many believe could be the focal point of a championship contender. However, there is not much else on this roster. That is why it would make the most sense to have as many assets for Siakam and Anunoby before they walk for nothing as VanVleet did this past offseason. It is in the franchise’s best interest to trade these two before the season ends, and that is what I am banking on.
Toronto has a very average schedule this season. It has 12 games with a true rest advantage and 12 games with a rest disadvantage. The Raptors also only have 14 back-to-backs and travel the second-fewest miles. This win total analysis is all about predicting the front office’s decisions, which is a risk but a risk worth taking.
Win Total Recommendation: UNDER 36.5
