The following are NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, February 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS, INDIANA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CLIPPERS, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS, MEMPHIS, OKLAHOMA CITY, MILWAUKEE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX ML, BOSTON ML, INDIANA ML, DENVER ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-DET, PHX-WSH, LAC-MIA, IND-CHA, TOR-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIL-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MEM-BOS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in MIL-UTA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 112-82 SU but 81-111-1 ATS (42.2%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/4: FADE UTAH vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE UTAH (-2.5 vs MIL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 62-39 SU but 41-59-1 ATS (41%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/4: FADE UTAH vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE UTAH (-2.5 vs MIL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 28-20 SU but 22-25-1 ATS (46.8%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/4: FADE UTAH vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE UTAH (-2.5 vs MIL)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* LA CLIPPERS is 16-4 Over the total in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
2/4: OVER the total in MIAMI-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224.5)

* MILWAUKEE is 4-14 SU and 2-15 ATS in the 4thStraightRoad game scenario over the last three seasons
2/4: FADE MILWAUKEE at Utah
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+2.5 at UTA)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-9 SU and 22-7 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
2/4: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs TOR)

* ORLANDO is 13-8 SU and 19-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
2/4: ORLANDO at Detroit
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-7 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 127-27 SU but just 60-92-2 ATS (39.5%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE PHOENIX (-11.5 at WSH), FADE BOSTON (-18 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 71-58 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 132-107 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-123 (58.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHX-WSH (o/u at 238), PLAY OVER in MEM-BOS (o/u at 219), PLAY OVER in IND-CHA (o/u at 237), PLAY UNDER in POR-DEN (o/u at 220)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 222-230 SU and 194-246-12 ATS (44.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-4 at MIA), FADE HOUSTON (+7 at MIN)

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 253-200 (55.8%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAC-MIA (o/u at 224.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.2% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (143-163 ATS, 46.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-181 ATS, 51.9%) over the L3 seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING CHARLOTTE (+10 vs IND), CONSIDER PLAYING MEMPHIS (+18 at BOS)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+3.9), 2. CHARLOTTE +10 (+1.2), 3. DETROIT +7 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -14 (+3.3), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+1.9), 3. BOSTON -18 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +7 (+2.1), 2. MIAMI +4 (+1.3), 3. TORONTO +8.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -14 (+2.6), 2. BOSTON -18 (+1.8), 3. PHOENIX -11.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-CHA OVER 236.5 (+2.0), 2. MIL-UTA OVER 246.5 (+1.4), 3. HOU-MIN OVER 221.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-OKC UNDER 238.5 (-4.7), 2. LAC-MIA UNDER 225.5 (-0.3), 3. POR-DEN UNDER 220 (-0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+3.3), 2. MIAMI +4 (+3.1), 3. CHARLOTTE +10 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -14 (+4.8), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+3.3), 3. BOSTON -18 (+2.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-UTA OVER 246.5 (+6.9), 2(tie). PHX-WSH OVER 238 (+3.5) and MEM-BOS OVER 219 (+3.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-OKC UNDER 238.5 (-4.4), 2(tie). ORL-DET UNDER 228 (-1.1) and HOU-MIN UNDER 221.5 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(551) HOUSTON at (552) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is on a 9-3 ATS run versus Houston
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(549) INDIANA at (550) CHARLOTTE
* Over the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the IND-CHA series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(545) LA CLIPPERS at (546) MIAMI
* LA CLIPPERS have won the last six ATS at Miami
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(547) MEMPHIS at (548) BOSTON
* BOSTON has won the last four ATS hosting Memphis
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(555) MILWAUKEE at (556) UTAH
* UTAH is 11-4 ATS since 2008 hosting Milwaukee but 4-4 ATS in the last eight
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

(541) ORLANDO at (542) DETROIT
* DETROIT is on a 6-1-1 ATS surge hosting Orlando
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(543) PHOENIX at (544) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON has won the last three ATS versus Phoenix
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(557) PORTLAND at (558) DENVER
* DENVER has won the last six ATS hosting Portland
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(553) TORONTO at (554) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 11-3-1 in the last 15 of the TOR-OKC series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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