The following betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, February 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 PM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, MINNESOTA, DETROIT

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, PHOENIX ML, MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-ORL, BOS-BKN, MIA-MIL, SAC-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-PHX, DET-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIN-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in SAC-PHX, PLAY OVER instead in DET-LAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 116-82 SU but 84-112-1 ATS (42.9%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/13: Fade PORTLAND vs. Minnesota
System Match: FADE PORTLAND (+8.5 vs MIN)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 64-39 SU but 43-59-1 ATS (42.2%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/13: FADE PORTLAND vs. Minnesota
System Match: FADE PORTLAND (+8.5 vs MIN)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 34-13 SU and 30-14-3 ATS (68.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/13: LA LAKERS vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-10.5 vs DET)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 58-24 SU and 49-30-3 ATS (62%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
2/13: PORTLAND vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+8.5 vs MIN)

* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 19-11 SU and 18-5-7 ATS (78.3%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/13: LA LAKERS vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-10.5 vs DET)

* Home teams playing an 2 Days Rest were 30-20 SU but 24-25-1 ATS (49%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/13: FADE PORTLAND vs. Minnesota
System Match: FADE PORTLAND (+8.5 vs MIN)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 48-41 SU and 47-41-1 ATS (53.4%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/13: MILWAUKEE vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-8 vs MIA)

* Under the total was 46-42 (52.3%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/13: Under the total in MIAMI-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* BROOKLYN is 25-12 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
2/13: Under the total in BOSTON-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 228)

* DETROIT is 4-11 SU and 11-4 ATS in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
2/13: DETROIT at La Lakers
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+10.5 at LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 135-28 SU but just 64-97-2 ATS (39.8%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (-10.5 vs DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 139-109 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 175-128 (57.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-LAL (o/u at 242)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

EXTREME SCORING SYSTEMS

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 180-112 SU but 127-161-4 ATS (44.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 24-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-10.5 vs DET)

QUALITY OF WINS/LOSSES CAN MATTER

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 234-179 SU but 179-223-11 ATS (44.5%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-57 ATS.
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-10.5 vs DET)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 83-47 SU & 77-51-2 ATS (60.2%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-5 vs SAC)

UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 203-221 SU & 190-231-3 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (+9 vs BOS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 46-12 SU and 36-20-2 ATS (64.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 at BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (147-166 ATS, 47%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (200-186 ATS, 51.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING PORTLAND (+8.5 vs MIN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +2 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -8.5 (+2.4), 2. PHOENIX -5 (+1.2), 3. LA LAKERS -10.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +8.5 (+2.6), 2. MIAMI +8 (+0.9), 3. DETROIT +10.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -5 (+1.1), 2. BOSTON -8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-PHX OVER 245 (+1.0), 2. MIN-POR OVER 213.5 (+0.9), 3. MIA-MIL OVER 223 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -8.5 (+4.9), 2. LA LAKERS -10.5 (+2.6), 3. BOSTON -8.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-ORL OVER 223 (+4.6), 2. BOS-BKN OVER 228 (+4.5), 3. MIN-POR OVER 213.5 (+2.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(503) BOSTON at (504) BROOKLYN
* BOSTON has won the last seven ATS at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(511) DETROIT at (512) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 6-0 in the last six of the DET-LAL series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(505) MIAMI at (506) MILWAUKEE
* The last nine games of the MIA-MIL series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(509) MINNESOTA at (510) PORTLAND
* PORTLAND is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 hosting Minnesota
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

(501) OKLAHOMA CITY at (502) ORLANDO
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 9-2 ATS run vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(507) SACRAMENTO at (508) PHOENIX
* SACRAMENTO is on a 7-1 ATS run at Phoenix
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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