The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 22, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, NEW ORLEANS, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, DENVER

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO ML, INDIANA ML, NEW YORK ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, PHOENIX ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, DENVER ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-TOR, DET-IND, NYK-PHI, PHX-DAL, HOU-NOP, LAC-OKC, CHA-UTA, SAS-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-TOR, DET-IND, PHX-DAL, SAS-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ORL-CLE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in DET-IND, PLAY OVER instead in PHX-DAL, PLAY OVER instead in LAL-GSW, PLAY OVER instead in SAS-SAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 35-13 SU and 31-14-3 ATS (68.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.

2/22: DENVER vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-15 vs WSH)

2/22: INDIANA vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-11.5 vs DET)

2/22: PHILADELPHIA vs. New York
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-1 vs NYK)

2/22: SACRAMENTO vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-9 vs SAS)

* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 20-11 SU and 19-5-7 ATS (78.3%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last two seasons.

2/22: INDIANA vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-11.5 vs DET)

2/22: SACRAMENTO vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-9 vs SAS)

* Over the total was 29-18 (60.9%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

2/22: Over the total in CHICAGO-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224.5)

2/22: Over the total in CLEVELAND-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217)

2/22: Over the total in DALLAS-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 245)

2/22: Over the total in DENVER-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232)

2/22: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242.5)

2/22: Over the total in INDIANA-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 246.5)

2/22: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229)

2/22: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236)

2/22: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228.5)

2/22: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 240.5)

2/22: Over the total in TORONTO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231.5)

2/22: Over the total in UTAH-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what has been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 9-2 SU and ATS (81.8%).
Any coach would tell you that he would love for his team to have its most success against its divisional rivals, and that pretty much goes for any sport. Well, so far this NBA season, Indiana has thrived against its Central Division foes.
*2/22 vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-11.5 vs DET)

The LA LAKERS have gone 21-7 Over the total (75%) on the road so far this season.
Despite totals averaging 231.5 in their road games this season, the Lakers have rewarded Over bettors with a 75% win rate. Team LeBron is doing its part, putting up 116.6 PPG themselves, but the real boost comes from LA’s porous defense, allowing 121.9 PPG in such contests. This continued lack of attention to defense on the road will doom the Lakers’ playoff hopes.
*2/22 at Golden State
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 241.5)

SAN ANTONIO has gone 0-9 SU and ATS (0%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
The Spurs are a low-tier team in the NBA, one that lost 18 games in a row at one point already, and they have been now for the last five years or so despite NBA media giving HC Gregg Popovich a lifetime free pass. To get to the next tier, teams typically have to be able to beat teams somewhat regularly in that tier. San Antonio obviously isn’t doing that and is a long way from being competitive again.
*2/22 at Sacramento
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+9 at SAC)

WASHINGTON is 18-8 ATS (69.2%) as a road underdog this season but 8-18 ATS (30.8%) as a home underdog
This is a strange performance dichotomy, and it shows that Washington literally plays better on the road than it does at home. These trends will apply in a lot of games the rest of the way
*2/22 at Denver
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+15 at DEN)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* DETROIT is 4-13 SU and 11-6 ATS in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
2/22: DETROIT at Indian
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+11.5 at IND)

* SAN ANTONIO was 4-21 SU and 8-17 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
2/22: FADE SAN ANTONIO at Sacramento
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+9 at SAC)

* TORONTO is 29-10 SU and 28-11 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
2/22: TORONTO vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-1 vs BKN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 82-51 SU and 80-50-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (+1 at TOR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 138-29 SU but just 66-99-2 ATS (40%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (-15 vs WSH), FADE UTAH (*only if they become a double-digit favorite vs. CHA*)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 74-58 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 140-111 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 175-128 (57.8%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in DET-IND (o/u at 246.5), PLAY OVER in WSH-DEN (o/u at 232)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

EXTREME SCORING SYSTEMS

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 181-113 SU but 129-161-4 ATS (44.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 25-32 ATS.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-8.5 at CHI), FADE GOLDEN STATE (-6 vs LAL)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 126-77 SU but 87-112-4 ATS (43.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 73-99 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-6 vs LAL), FADE UTAH (-9.5 vs CHA)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 105-107 SU but 113-86-3 ATS (56.8%), including 83-44 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY UTAH (-9.5 vs CHA)

QUALITY OF WINS/LOSSES CAN MATTER

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 221-122 SU but just 142-190-11 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (-11.5 vs. DET), FADE CLEVELAND (-8.5 vs. ORL), FADE GOLDEN STATE (-6 vs. LAL)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 84-47 SU and 78-51-2 ATS (60.5%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+7 at NOP)

UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 257-203 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in LAC-OKC (o/u at 236), PLAY UNDER in PHX-DAL (o/u at 245)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 203-222 SU and 190-231-4 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-8.5 at CHI)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 210-211 SU and 187-222-10 ATS (45.7%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+15 at DEN), FADE BOSTON (-8.5 at CHI), FADE UTAH (-9.5 vs CHA), FADE GOLDEN STATE (-6 vs LAL)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 110-138 SU and 109-133-6 ATS (45%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. (BOS 2/22)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-8.5 at CHI)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 132-50 SU and 100-80-2 ATS (55.6%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7 vs. HOU), PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-6 vs. LAL), PLAY UTAH (-9.5 vs. CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 46-12 SU and 36-20-2 ATS (64.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-8.5 at CHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (148-166 ATS, 47.1%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (201-187 ATS, 51.8%) over the L3 seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING NEW YORK (+1 at PHI), CONSIDER PLAYING WASHINGTON (+15 at DEN), FADE UTAH (-9.5 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 55-51 SU and 62-42-3 ATS (59.6%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (+1 at PHI), PLAY WASHINGTON (+15 at DEN), PLAY UTAH (-9.5 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 44-44 SU and 53-31-4 ATS (63.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (+1 at PHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 168-207 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 22-95 SU & 49-65-3 ATS (43%).
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+15 at DEN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +11.5 (+4.5), 2. WASHINGTON +15 (+2.1), 3. ORLANDO +8.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -6 (+1.8), 2. UTAH -9.5 (+1.2), 3. DALLAS -1.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +11.5 (+2.6), 2. ORLANDO +8.5 (+1.8), 3. CHICAGO +8.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -9 (+1.6), 2. UTAH -9.5 (+1.1), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-IND OVER 246.5 (+2.3), 2. CHA-UTA OVER 228.5 (+2.0), 3. BOS-CHI OVER 224.5 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-GSW UNDER 242.5 (-1.8), 2. PHX-DAL UNDER 245 (-1.0), 3. BKN-TOR UNDER 231.5 (-0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1 (+1.8), 2. ORLANDO +8.5 (+1.4), 3. LA CLIPPERS +1 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH -9.5 (+4.6), 2. GOLDEN STATE -6 (+2.3), 3. NEW ORLEANS -7 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-CHI OVER 224.5 (+6.9), 2. CHA-UTA OVER 228.5 (+2.7), 3. ORL-CLE OVER 217 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-DAL UNDER 245 (-2.5), 2. LAL-GSW UNDER 242.5 (-1.7), 3. WSH-DEN UNDER 232 (-1.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) BROOKLYN at (502) TORONTO
* BROOKLYN has won the last six games ATS versus Toronto
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(503) ORLANDO at (504) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND is on a 6-1 ATS run versus Orlando
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(505) DETROIT at (506) INDIANA
* The last five games of the DET-IND series in Indiana went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(507) NEW YORK at (508) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are 7-4-1 ATS in the last 12 of the NYL-PHI series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(509) PHOENIX at (510) DALLAS
* Road teams are on a 6-1 ATS run in the PHO-DAL series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(511) HOUSTON at (512) NEW ORLEANS
* The last seven games of the HOU-NOP series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(513) BOSTON at (514) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(515) LA CLIPPERS at (516) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won the last five ATS hosting LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(517) CHARLOTTE at (518) UTAH
* UTAH is 9-3 ATS In the last 12 vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

(519) WASHINGTON at (520) DENVER
* Home teams are on a 6-3 ATS run in the WAS-DEN series
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(521) LA LAKERS at (522) GOLDEN STATE
* LA LAKERS are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 versus Golden State
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

(523) SAN ANTONIO at (524) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is on a 6-1 ATS run vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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