The following is a collection of NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, February 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-DET, BOS-NYK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): BKN-MIN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations and NBA betting trends in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 65-38 SU and 62-38-3 ATS (62%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
2/24: MINNESOTA vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-8 vs BKN)

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 45-29 SU & 44-29-1 ATS (60.3%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.
2/24: DETROIT vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+7.5 vs ORL)

2/24: NEW YORK vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (+6 vs BOS)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 27-25 SU and 31-21 ATS (59.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
2/24: MINNESOTA vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-8 vs BKN)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 50-42 SU and 49-42-1 ATS (53.8%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/24: MINNESOTA vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-8 vs BKN)

* Over the total was 73-49 (59.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/24: Over the total in MINNESOTA-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215.5)

* UNDER the total was 47-43-1 (52.2%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/24: Under the total in BROOKLYN-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

* UNDER the total was 27-19 (58.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
2/24: Under the total in DETROIT-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224.5)

2/24: Under the total in NEW YORK-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

NEW YORK has gone 9-1 Under the total (90%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
The Knicks are allowing just 102.5 PPG in this situation this season and have held six of the 10 opponents to less than 100 points. I don’t care what the scenario is. There aren’t many spots in the NBA nowadays where you can cite stats like this. The combined scores of these games are just 113 PPG on totals averaging 223.7 so there has been a bit of room for error. Consider these numbers for the Knicks remaining home games when coming off a road contest:
2/24 vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 224.5)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 23-8 SU and 24-7 ATS (77.4%).
The Magic are a young team so it would make sense that they would thrive in a situation of routine. The problem, however, is that they are 7-17 SU in all other spots. The One Day Rest scenario is the most frequent scheduling situation on any team’s schedule, so this is an ideal trend for a team to have. These are the rest of the games this season in which bettors will be able to take advantage:
2/24 at Detroit
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-7.5 at DET)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM-SPECIFIC SCHEDULING SITUATION TRENDS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 204-223 SU and 192-231-4 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE ORLANDO (-7.5 at DET)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 212-214 SU and 189-225-10 ATS (45.7%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6 at NYK)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 111-139 SU and 110-134-6 ATS (45.1%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6 at NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (148-167 ATS, 47%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (202-190 ATS, 51.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING DETROIT (+7.5 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 168-209 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 22-97 SU ad 49-67-3 ATS (42.2%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-6 at NYK)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6 (+3.4), 2. MINNESOTA -8 (+1.2), 3. ORLANDO -7.5 (+1.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT +7.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6 (+1.6), 2. MINNESOTA -8 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MIN OVER 215.5 (+3.4), 2. BOS-NYK OVER 224.5 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: ORL-DET UNDER 224.5 (-0.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BROOKLYN +8 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). ORLANDO -7.5 (+1.5) and BOSTON -6 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MIN OVER 215.5 (+3.6), 2. BOS-NYK OVER 224.5 (+0.5), 3. ORL-DET OVER 224.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(545) ORLANDO at (546) DETROIT
* ORLANDO has won the last three ATS versus Detroit
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(547) BROOKLYN at (548) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 versus Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(549) BOSTON at (550) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five hosting Boston
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

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