The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 15, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, ORLANDO, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): UTAH

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): PHOENIX

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX ML, DENVER ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-DET, ORL-TOR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHX-CHA, PLAY UNDER in MIA-DET, PLAY UNDER in ORL-TOR, PLAY OVER in LAC-NOP

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NO QUALIFYING GENERAL SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 16-22 SU and 11-27 ATS (28.9%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
3/15 at Utah
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2 at UTA)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 27-10 SU and 27-10 ATS (73%).
3/15 at Toronto
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-8.5 at TOR)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 118-35 SU and 97-56 ATS (63.4%) run.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 vs LAC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 147-29 SU but just 72-101-3 ATS (41.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE PHOENIX (-10 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 78-61 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 145-116 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 180-135 (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHX-CHA (o/u at 216.5), PLAY OVER in DEN-SAS (o/u at 221)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L4+ seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 124-44 SU and 103-63-2 ATS (62%) in their last 168 tries.
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-8 at DET)

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 207-231 SU and 194-240-4 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+7.5 at NOP)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 219-218 SU and 196-229-10 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+7.5 at NOP)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 116-142 SU and 115-137-6 ATS (45.6%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+7.5 at NOP)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 137-53 SU and 105-83-2 ATS (55.9%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-10 at CHA), PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 vs. LAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 31-9 SU and 29-9-2 ATS (76.3%) in their last 40 tries.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-8 at DET)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 47-14 SU and 37-22-2 ATS (62.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-10.5 at SAS)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (155-172 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-195 ATS, 51.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING MIAMI (-8 at DET), CONSIDER PLAYING TORONTO (+8.5 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-61 SU and 67-50-3 ATS (57.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+8.5 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 45-44 SU and 54-31-4 ATS (63.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-8 at DET)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +2.5 (+3.3), 2. DETROIT +8 (+0.9), 3. LA CLIPPERS +7.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -8.5 (+2.2), 2. DENVER -10.5 (+1.2), 3. PHOENIX -10 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +2.5 (+2.7), 2. TORONTO +8.5 (+1.7), 3. CHARLOTTE +10 (+0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-NOP OVER 217.5 (+4.4), 2. PHX-CHA OVER 217.5 (+1.7) and ATL-UTA OVER 223 (+1.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-TOR UNDER 217.5 (-0.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +2.5 (+3.3), 2. LA CLIPPERS +7.5 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -8 (+3.1), 2. DENVER -10.5 (+2.5), 3. ORLANDO -8.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-NOP OVER 217.5 (+5.6), 2. ATL-UTA OVER 223 (+4.2), 3. PHX-CHA OVER 217.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(523) ATLANTA at (524) UTAH
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the ATL-UTA series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(521) DENVER at (522) SAN ANTONIO
* Home teams have swept the last four ATS in the DEN-SAN set
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(519) LA CLIPPERS at (520) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 versus LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(515) MIAMI at (516) DETROIT
* DETROIT is on an 8-1 ATS surge versus Miami
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(517) ORLANDO at (518) TORONTO
* Home teams have swept the last five ATS in the ORL-TOR set
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(513) PHOENIX at (514) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 4-0 in the last four of the PHO-CHA series in Charlotte
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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