The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, MIAMI, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN, MIAMI, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-BKN, DEN-LAL, HOU-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): HOU-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ATL-BKN, PLAY OVER in POR-MEM

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 44-21 SU and 36-28-1 ATS (56.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/2: MEMPHIS vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-2 vs POR)

* Over the total was 72-50 (59%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/2: Over the total in MEMPHIS-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 208)

* Over the total was 64-53 (54.7%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/2: Over the total in MEMPHIS-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 208)

* Over the total was 30-18 (62.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
3/2: Over the total in MEMPHIS-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 208)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 15-20 SU and 10-25 ATS (28.6%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season.
3/2 at Brooklyn
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (pk at BKN)

PHOENIX is 8-1 Over the total (88.9%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
3/2 vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* BROOKLYN was 18-10 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
3/2: Under the total in ATLANTA-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 219)

* MEMPHIS is 27-12 SU and 24-14 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
3/2: MEMPHIS vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-2 vs POR)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 85-52 SU and 83-51-3 ATS (61.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-2 vs POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-58 (57%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-113 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 177-133 (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in HOU-PHX (only if they become a double-digit favorite vs HOU, -9.5 currently)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.3% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (152-168 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-193 ATS, 51.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE MEMPHIS (-2 vs POR)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +7.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN PK (+2.5), 2. LA LAKERS PK (+1.2), 3. MEMPHIS -2 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +9.5 (+1.7), 2. UTAH +7.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN PK (+5.0), 2. DENVER PK (+1.1), 3. MEMPHIS -2 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MEM OVER 208 (+1.9), 2. ATL-BKN OVER 219 (+1.4), 3. DEN-LAL OVER 227.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-PHX UNDER 232 (-3.4), 2. UTA-MIA UNDER 223.5 (-1.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +7.5 (+2.9), 2. PORTLAND +2 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN PK (+2.9), 2. DENVER PK (+1.5), 3. PHOENIX -9.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-LAL OVER 227.5 (+2.6), 2. ATL-BKN OVER 219 (+2.3), 3. POR-MEM OVER 208 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-PHX UNDER 232 (-1.8), 2. UTA-MIA UNDER 223.5 (-0.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(569) ATLANTA at (570) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs are 12-2 ATS in the ATL-BRK series since 2020
System Match: *game currently a pick ’em*

(575) DENVER at (576) LA LAKERS
* DENVER has won the last four ATS vs. LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(577) HOUSTON at (578) PHOENIX
* HOUSTON is on a 10-4 ATS run at Phoenix
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(573) PORTLAND at (574) MEMPHIS
* Underdogs are on a 10-2-2 ATS run in the POR-MEM series
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

(571) UTAH at (572) MIAMI
* Underdogs are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six of the UTA-MIA series
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

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