The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 31, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

 

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, NEW YORK, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA LAKERS, MIAMI, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): CHARLOTTE

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, LA LAKERS, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority NUMBER of BETS groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, LA CLIPPERS, LA LAKERS, OKLAHOMA CITY, MINNESOTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, MIAMI ML, DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): CHARLOTTE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, LA CLIPPERS ML, MIAMI ML, SACRAMENTO ML

These two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-TOR, LAC-CHA, GSW-SAS, UTA-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-DEN, PLAY UNDER in PHI-TOR, PLAY UNDER in LAC-CHA, PLAY OVER in MIA-WSH, PLAY OVER in OKC-NYK, PLAY OVER in CHI-MIN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 176-117 SU and 171-114 ATS (60%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/31: TORONTO vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+11 vs PHI)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 56-28 SU and 52-30-2 ATS (63.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
3/31: TORONTO vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+11 vs PHI)

* Over the total was 101-70 (59.1%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/31: Over the total in TORONTO-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217.5)

* Over the total was 48-36 (57.1%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/31: Over the total in TORONTO-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

CHICAGO is 22-8 Over the total (73.3%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/31 at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in CHI-MIN (o/u at 213.5)

DALLAS boasts an impressive 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83.3%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
3/31 at Houston
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-2.5 at HOU)

The LA LAKERS have gone 23-12 Over the total (65.7%) on the road so far this season.
3/31 at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in LAL-BKN (o/u at 225.5)

NEW YORK has gone 11-2 Under the total (84.6%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
3/31 vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in OKC-NYK (o/u at 216.5)

WASHINGTON is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) as a road underdog this season but 11-21 ATS (34.4%) as a home underdog
3/31 vs Miami
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+11 vs MIA)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* CHARLOTTE is 28-14 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
3/31: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in LAC-CHA (o/u at 215.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is 25-16 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
3/31: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in GSW-SAS (o/u at 227)

* TORONTO is 31-11 SU and 29-13 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
3/31: TORONTO vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+11 vs PHI)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 120-35 SU and 99-56 ATS (63.9%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-5 vs CLE)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 156-30 SU but just 79-104-3 ATS (43.2%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-14.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-63 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 148-123 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 197-142 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in PHI-TOR (o/u at 217.5), PLAY OVER in LAC-CHA (o/u at 215.5), PLAY UNDER in MIA-WSH (o/u at 217), PLAY OVER in UTA-SAC (o/u at 222)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 191-117 SU but 137-167-4 ATS (45.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-11 at WSH)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 127
44 SU and 106-63-2 ATS (62.7%) in their last 171 tries.
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-6 at BKN)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 228-125 SU but just 149-193-11 ATS (43.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-14.5 at CHA),

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 240-189 SU but 184-234-11 ATS (44%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-60 ATS.
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (+6 vs LAL)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 263-208 (55.8%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in CHI-MIN (o/u at 213.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 219-236 SU and 204-247-4 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (+6 vs LAL), FADE MIAMI (-11 at WSH), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at NYK)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 228-223 SU and 204-235-10 ATS (46.5%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (+6 vs LAL), FADE MIAMI (-11 at WSH)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 120-147 SU and 120-141-6 ATS (46%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-11 at WSH)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 150-128 SU and 158-113-7 ATS (58.3%) run.
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+11 vs MIA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-66 SU and 68-54-3 ATS (55.7%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+12 at SAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 184-226 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 24-104 SU and 54-71-3 ATS (43.2%).
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+11 vs PHI), FADE HOUSTON (+2.5 vs DAL), FADE UTAH (+12 at SAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 41-58 ATS (41.4%) in the next game, including 18-32 ATS (36%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+2.5 vs DAL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +14.5 (+3.0), 2. TORONTO +11 (+1.2), 3. CLEVELAND +5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -11 (+1.1), 2. NEW YORK -1.5 (+1.0), 3. GOLDEN STATE -8.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +5 (+4.2), 2. CHARLOTTE +14.5 (+2.8), 3. BROOKLYN +6 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -1.5 (+1.7), 2. GOLDEN STATE -8.5 (+0.9), 3. MIAMI -11 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-SAC OVER 222 (+1.0), 2. LAL-BKN OVER 225.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-MIN UNDER 213.5 (-2.5), 2. OKC-NYK UNDER 216.5 (-1.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +14.5 (+5.2), 2. CLEVELAND +5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -11 (+1.4), 2. DALLAS -2.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-SAC OVER 222 (+2.5), 2. LAC-CHA OVER 215.5 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-MIN UNDER 213.5 (-1.5), 2. OKC-NYK UNDER 216.5 (-1.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(547) CHICAGO at (548) MINNESOTA
* Home teams are on 12-2 ATS surge in the CHI-MIN series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(531) CLEVELAND at (532) DENVER
* The last four games of the CLE-DEN series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(543) DALLAS at (544) HOUSTON
* Home teams are on a 5-0 ATS streak in the DAL-HOU series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(541) GOLDEN STATE at (542) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are on a 9-2 ATS run in the GSW-SAN series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(535) LA CLIPPERS at (536) CHARLOTTE
* LA CLIPPERS are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(537) LA LAKERS at (538) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the LAL-BRK series
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

(539) MIAMI at (540) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON is 4-1 ATS in the last five versus Miami
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) NEW YORK
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 5-0 ATS streak in New York
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(533) PHILADELPHIA at (534) TORONTO
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 9-4 ATS run versus Toronto
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(549) UTAH at (550) SACRAMENTO
* UTAH is 13-5 ATS versus Sacramento since 2018
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

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