The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MIAMI, PHOENIX, BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, BOSTON ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX ML, SACRAMENTO ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-DET, MIN-IND, MIA-DAL, TOR-PHX, BOS-DEN, SAS-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-PHX, SAS-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BKN-DET

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 30-26 SU and 33-23 ATS (58.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
3/7: GOLDEN STATE vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs CHI)

* Over the total was 75-51 (59.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
3/7: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)

* Over the total was 30-19 (61.2%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
3/7: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

CHICAGO is 18-6 Over the total (75%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/7 vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)

SAN ANTONIO has gone 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS (15.4%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
3/7 at Sacramento
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+11 at SAC)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 57-35 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
3/7: OVER the total in INDIANA-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)

* PHOENIX is 35-19 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
3/7: Over the total in TORONTO-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 143-29 SU but just 71-99-2 ATS (41.7%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE PHOENIX (-10 vs TOR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-60 (56.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-113 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 178-134 (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in TOR-PHX (o/u at 232.5), PLAY OVER in SAS-SAC (o/u at 237.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 185-114 SU but 133-162-4 ATS (45.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (-1.5 vs MIN)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 128-79 SU but 89-114-4 ATS (43.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included is a 75-101 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-4.5 vs MIA)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 105-111 SU but 113-90-3 ATS (55.7%), including 83-47 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-4.5 vs MIA)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 236-183 SU but 181-227-11 ATS (44.4%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-59 ATS.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (-1.5 vs. MIN), FADE GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs. CHI)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 260-205 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIN-IND (o/u at 227.5)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 147-118 SU and 154-104-7 ATS (59.7%) run.
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs CHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +2 (+4.9), 2. MIAMI +4.5 (+0.7), 3. BOSTON +0.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -10 (+1.1), 2. GOLDEN STATE -8 (+0.8), 3. INDIANA -1.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +4.5 (+0.9), 2. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+0.7), 3. DETROIT +2 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -0.5 (+1.3), 2. PHOENIX -10 (+0.4), 3. GOLDEN STATE -8 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-GSW OVER 223.5 (+1.9), 2. MIN-IND OVER 227.5 (+0.7), 3. TOR-PHX OVER 232.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-SAC UNDER 236.5 (-2.9), 2. MIA-DAL UNDER 229 (-1.0), 3. BOS-DEN UNDER 221 (-0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +2 (+4.3), 2. SAN ANTONIO +11 (+0.3), 3. BOSTON +0.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -10 (+1.9), 2. INDIANA -1.5 (+1.3), 3. GOLDEN STATE -8 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-GSW OVER 223.5 (+2.8), 2. MIN-IND OVER 227.5 (+1.8), 3. TOR-PHX OVER 232.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-SAC UNDER 236.5 (-2.5), 2. MIA-DAL UNDER 229 (-0.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(555) BOSTON at (556) DENVER
* Underdogs are 11-6-2 ATS in the BOS-DEN series since 2013
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(547) BROOKLYN at (548) DETROIT
* The last seven games of the BRK-DET series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(557) CHICAGO at (558) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE in on an 8-0 ATS streak hosting Chicago
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(551) MIAMI at (552) DALLAS
* Underdogs are on an 8-3-1 ATS surge in the MIA-DAL series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(549) MINNESOTA at (550) INDIANA
* MINNESOTA has won the last four ATS vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(559) SAN ANTONIO at (560) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams have won the last five ATS in the SAN-SAC series
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(553) TORONTO at (554) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 hosting Toronto
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

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