The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, BOSTON, TORONTO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority HANDLE of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, BOSTON, DENVER, TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, DALLAS, BOSTON, TORONTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, DENVER ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-CHA, DAL-DET, BOS-PHX, SAS-GSW, UTA-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BKN-CHA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 120-84 SU but 87-115-1 ATS (43.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/9: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Chicago
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs CHI)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 52-38 SU but 37-53 ATS (41.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/9: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Chicago
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs CHI)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 67-41 SU but 45-62-1 ATS (42.1%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/9: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Chicago
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs CHI)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 37-21 SU but 23-34-1 ATS (40.4%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/9: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. Chicago
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs CHI)

* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 29-25 SU and 29-25 ATS (53.7%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
3/9: CHARLOTTE vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+6.5 vs BKN)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 55-43 SU and 52-45-1 ATS (53.6%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last wo seasons.
3/9: PORTLAND vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+3 vs TOR)

* Under the total was 91-57-1 (61.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.

3/9: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)

3/9: Under the total in PORTLAND-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227)

* Under the total was 49-47-1 (51%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/9: Under the total in TORONTO-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227)

* Over the total was 26-20 (56.5%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
3/9: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

CHICAGO is 19-6 Over the total (76%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/9 at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220)

DALLAS boasts an impressive 12-2 SU and ATS (85.7%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
3/9 at Detroit
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-7.5 at DET)

The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 28-11 SU and 24-15 ATS (61.5%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
3/9 vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs CHI)

TORONTO has gone Over the total in its last 13 schedule spots when playing consecutive road games.
3/9 at Portland
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is 43-17 SU and 35-22 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
3/9: GOLDEN STATE vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-11 vs SAS)

* GOLDEN STATE is 71-21 SU and 57-32 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
3/9: GOLDEN STATE vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-11 vs SAS)

* LA CLIPPERS is 14-9 SU but 5-18 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/9: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Chicago
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs CHI)

* SAN ANTONIO was 4-25 SU and 11-18 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
3/9: Fade SAN ANTONIO at Golden State
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+11 at GSW)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on an 86-53 SU and 84-52-3 ATS (61.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (-3 at POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-60 (56.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-114 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 179-134 (57.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in SAS-GSW (o/u at 227.5), PLAY UNDER in UTA-DEN (o/u at 228)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS NEXT GAME SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (154-171 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-195 ATS, 51.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE CHARLOTTE (+6.5 vs BKN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+2.8), 2. CHICAGO +7 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -12.5 (+2.9), 2. TORONTO -3 (+2.7), 3. BOSTON -5.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +7 (+2.2), 2. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -5.5 (+1.9), 2. DENVER -12.5 (+0.9), 3. DALLAS -7.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DAL-DET OVER 235 (+0.7) and BOS-PHX OVER 226.5 (+0.7), 3. UTA-DEN OVER 228 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-CHA UNDER 207.5 (-2.0), 2. TOR-POR UNDER 227 (-1.1), 3. CHI-LAC UNDER 220 (-0.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+3.1), 2. CHICAGO +7 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -12.5 (+2.8), 2. TORONTO -3 (+2.5), 3. DALLAS -7.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-PHX OVER 226.5 (+2.8), 2. DAL-DET OVER 235 (+1.8), 3. TOR-POR OVER 227 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-CHA UNDER 207.5 (-2.5), 2. CHI-LAC UNDER 220 (-0.4), 3. UTA-DEN UNDER 228 (-0.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(507) BOSTON at (508) PHOENIX
* Underdogs are 13-2 ATS in the last 15 of the BOS-PHO series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(503) BROOKLYN at (504) CHARLOTTE
* BROOKLYN is on a 7-1 ATS surge at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(501) CHICAGO at (502) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the CHI-LAC series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(505) DALLAS at (506) DETROIT
* Road teams are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight of the DAL-DET series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(509) SAN ANTONIO at (510) GOLDEN STATE
* SAN ANTONIO is 4-1 ATS in the last five at Golden State
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(513) TORONTO at (514) PORTLAND
* Road teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the TOR-POR series
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(511) UTAH at (512) DENVER
* UTAH is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 versus Denver
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

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