The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted NBA betting trends features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, CLEVELAND, PHOENIX, DENVER, UTAH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the roadside of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, HOUSTON, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): CHARLOTTE

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, HOUSTON, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, PHOENIX

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA ML, BOSTON ML, CLEVELAND ML, HOUSTON ML, DALLAS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, MIAMI ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, DALLAS ML, PHOENIX ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-CHA, MIA-PHI, IND-TOR, WSH-NOP, SAS-DAL, DET-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-CHA, IND-TOR, WSH-NOP, SAS-DAL, DET-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in NYK-ORL, PLAY OVER in HOU-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in IND-TOR, PLAY UNDER instead in LAL-UTA, PLAY OVER instead in SAS-DAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 43-19 SU and 35-26-1 ATS (57.4%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/14: PHILADELPHIA vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-4 vs MIA)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 25-24 SU and 29-20 ATS (59.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
2/14: PHOENIX vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-13 vs DET)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 48-42 SU and 47-42-1 ATS (52.8%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/14: ORLANDO vs. New York
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-3.5 vs NYK)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 14-12 SU and 16-10 ATS (61.5%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/14: PHOENIX vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-13 vs DET)

* Over the total was 72-47 (60.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/14: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

* Over the total was 72-47 (60.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/14: Over the total in PHOENIX-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235)

* Under the total was 47-42 (52.8%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/14: UNDER the total in NEW YORK-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 211.5)

* Over the total was 29-16 (64.4%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
2/14: Over the total in PHOENIX-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235)

* Over the total was 36-26 (58.1%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
2/14: Over the total in UTAH-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 240.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA was 31-12 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
2/14: OVER the total in CHARLOTTE-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 27-14 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
2/14: UNDER the total in ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 238.5)

* DETROIT is 4-12 SU and 11-5 ATS in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
2/14: DETROIT at Phoenix
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+13 at PHX)

* MEMPHIS is 49-18 SU and 40-26 ATS at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
2/14: MEMPHIS vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+2.5 vs HOU)

* PHILADELPHIA is 22-12 SU and 21-13 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
2/14: PHILADELPHIA vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-4 vs MIA)

* SAN ANTONIO was 4-20 SU and 8-16 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
2/14: Fade SAN ANTONIO at Dallas
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+11 at DAL)

* TORONTO is 29-9 SU and 27-11 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
2/14: TORONTO vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+3.5 vs IND)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 136-28 SU but just 65-97-2 ATS (40.1%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-12 vs WSH), FADE PHOENIX (-13 vs DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 139-110 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 175-128 (57.8%)
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BKN-BOS (o/u at 228.5), PLAY OVER in WSH-NOP (o/u at 235.5), PLAY UNDER in SAS-DAL (o/u at 242), PLAY OVER in DET-PHX (o/u at 235)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

EXTREME SCORING SYSTEMS

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 181-112 SU but 128-161-4 ATS (44.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 24-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+9 at CLE)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble

NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 126-76 SU but 87-111-4 ATS (43.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 73-98 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-7 at CHA)

QUALITY OF WINS/LOSSES CAN MATTER

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 235-179 SU but 180-223-11 ATS (44.7%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-57 ATS.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs LAC)

UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 256-203 (55.8%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DET-PHX (o/u at 235)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 210-210 SU and 187-221-10 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs LAC)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 132-49 SU and 100-79-2 ATS (55.9%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY UTAH (-5.5 vs LAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 78-15 SU but 36-55-3 ATS (39.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-13.5 vs BKN), FADE DALLAS (-11 vs SAS)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 55-50 SU and 61-42-3 ATS (59.2%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+12 at NOP)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 166-207 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 21-95 SU and 48-65-3 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+12 at NOP), FADE MEMPHIS (+2.5 vs HOU)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +4 (+2.0), 2. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+1.7), 3. SACRAMENTO +5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA -3.5 (+0.7), 2. HOUSTON -2.5 (+0.6), 3. DALLAS -11 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +4 (+1.4), 2. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+0.7), 3. SACRAMENTO +5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -12 (+2.5), 2. PHOENIX -13 (+2.2), 3. DALLAS -11 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-PHX OVER 235 (+6.7), 2. SAC-DEN OVER 229.5 (+2.3), 3. HOU-MEM OVER 219.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-PHI UNDER 225 (-3.1), 2. IND-TOR UNDER 245 (-2.4), 3. LAL-UTA UNDER 240.5 (-1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +5 (+3.7), 2. MIAMI +4 (+2.2), 3. WASHINGTON +12 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CLEVELAND -9 (+1.4) and PHOENIX -13 (+1.4), 3. ATLANTA -7 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-PHX OVER 235 (+7.7), 2. NYK-ORL OVER 211.5 (+4.6), 3. SAC-DEN OVER 229.5 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-BOS UNDER 228.5 (-3.2), 2. MIA-PHI UNDER 225 (-2.2), 3. WSH-NOP UNDER 235.5 (-1.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(513) ATLANTA at (514) CHARLOTTE
* Underdogs are on a 10-2-1 ATS run in the ATL-CHA series
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(521) BROOKLYN at (522) BOSTON
* BOSTON is on a 10-2-2 ATS run versus Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(523) CHICAGO at (524) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND has won the last five ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(531) DETROIT at (532) PHOENIX
* Road teams have swept the last five ATS in the DET-PHO series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(525) HOUSTON at (526) MEMPHIS
* Favorites are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight of the HOU-MEM series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(519) INDIANA at (520) TORONTO
* Underdogs have won the last three ATS in the IND-TOR series
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(537) LA CLIPPERS at (538) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE has won the last four ATS hosting Golden State
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(535) LA LAKERS at (536) UTAH
* UTAH has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six versus LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

(517) MIAMI at (518) PHILADELPHIA
* MIAMI is 5-1 ATS in the last six versus Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(515) NEW YORK at (516) ORLANDO
* The last seven games of the NYK-ORL series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(533) SACRAMENTO at (534) DENVER
* Underdogs are on a 9-4 ATS surge in the SAC-DEN series
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(529) SAN ANTONIO at (530) DALLAS
* The last eight games of the SAN-DAL series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(527) WASHINGTON at (528) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams have won the last three ATS in the WAS-NOP series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

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