The following NBA betting trends are qualified for the NBA games of Friday, February 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing the majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, MILWAUKEE ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-PHI, WSH-BOS, CHA-MIL, NOP-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ATL-PHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%)
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in ATL-PHI

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 46-40 SU and 45-40-1 ATS (52.9%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/9: LA LAKERS vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (+2.5 vs NOP)

2/9: MILWAUKEE vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-14 vs CHA)

* Under the total was 44-41 (51.7%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/9: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 233.5)

2/9: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 230.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC SCHEDULING TRENDS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 139-107 (56.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-126 (57.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in WSH-BOS (o/u at 235.5), PLAY OVER in CHA-MIL (o/u at 230.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 104-106 SU but 112-85-3 ATS (56.8%), including 83-43 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-2.5 at PHI), PLAY CHARLOTTE (+14 at MIL)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 198-218 SU and 184-229-3 ATS (44.6%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-1.5 vs HOU)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 143-114 SU and 148-102-7 ATS (59.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+17 at BOS), PLAY DENVER (+2.5 at SAC)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 130-49 SU and 99-78-2 ATS (55.9%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-14 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 55-47 SU and 59-41-3 ATS (59%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+17 at BOS)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 163-203 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-93 SU and 47-63-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE CHARLOTTE (+14 at MIL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +2.5 (+4.1), 2. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+3.6), 3. DENVER +2.5 (+1.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -17 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +2.5 (+4.3), 2. DENVER +2.5 (+1.6), 3. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -17 (+4.3), 2. TORONTO -1.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-SAC OVER 232 (+1.8), 2. CHA-MIL OVER 230.5 (+1.5), 3. WSH-BOS OVER 236 (+1.1)

Today’s PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: ATL-PHI UNDER 246 (-1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +2.5 (+4.4), 2. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+3.9), 3. CHARLOTTE +14 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -17 (+1.9), 2. SACRAMENTO -2.5 (+1.6), 3. TORONTO -1.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-TOR OVER 234 (+1.9), 2(tie). WSH-BOS OVER 236 (+0.7) and DEN-SAC OVER 232 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-PHI UNDER 246 (-2.1), 2. CHA-MIL UNDER 230.5 (-1.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(533) ATLANTA at (534) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are on a 6-1 ATS surge in the ATL-PHI series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(539) CHARLOTTE at (540) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams have wept last four ATS in the CHA-MIL series
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(541) DENVER at (542) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is 6-2 ATS in the last eight hosting Denver
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(535) HOUSTON at (536) TORONTO
* HOUSTON is 6-2 ATS in the last eight at Toronto
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(543) NEW ORLEANS at (544) LA LAKERS
* HOME TEAMS are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six of the NOP-LAL series
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

(537) WASHINGTON at (538) BOSTON
* BOSTON has won the last three ATS hosting Washington
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

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