The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, February 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, LA CLIPPERS, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CLIPPERS, PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA  CLIPPERS, PHOENIX, SACRAMENTO, HOUSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, ORLANDO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, DENVER ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-WSH, LAC-DET, GSW-MEM, NOP-SAS, CHA-OKC, ORL-MIN, POR-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-WSH, PHX-ATL, SAC-IND, NOP-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: ORL-MIN matchup has HANDLE favoring UNDER, but NUMBER of BETS favoring OVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in PHX-ATL, PLAY OVER instead in SAC-IND

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 111-80 SU but 80-109-1 ATS (42.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/2: FADE ATLANTA vs. Phoenix
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3.5 vs PHX)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 61-38 SU but 40-58-1 ATS (40.8%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/2: FADE ATLANTA vs. Phoenix
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3.5 vs PHX)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 34-20 SU but 21-32-1 ATS (39.6%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
2/2: FADE ATLANTA vs. Phoenix
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3.5 vs PHX)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* LA CLIPPERS is 15-4 Over the total in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
2/2: OVER the total in DETROIT-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238.5)

* MEMPHIS is 26-11 SU and 23-13 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
2/2: MEMPHIS vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+8.5 vs GSW)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-18 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
2/2: OVER the total in CHARLOTTE-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-9 SU and 21-7 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
2/2: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs CHA)

* ORLANDO is 12-8 SU and 18-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
2/2: ORLANDO at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+7.5 at MIN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 125-28 SU but just 59-92-2 ATS (39.1%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-11.5 at DET), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 71-57 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 130-108 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-123 (58.4%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in POR-DEN (o/u at 220.5), PLAY OVER in LAC-DET (o/u at 238.5), PLAY OVER in CHA-OKC (o/u at 225)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 221-229 SU and 193-245-12 ATS (44.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (+3.5 vs PHX), FADE PHOENIX (-3.5 at ATL)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 193-215 SU and 177-228-3 ATS (43.7%) in the next game
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-3.5 at ATL), FADE DETROIT (+11.5 vs LAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (144-163 ATS, 46.9%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-180 ATS, 52%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING CHARLOTTE (+16 at OKC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +3 (+4.7), 2. MEMPHIS +8.5 (+3.8), 3. DETROIT +11.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -8 (+1.6), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -16 (+1.4), 3. HOUSTON -4.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +3 (+4.1), 2. CHARLOTTE +16 (+4.0), 3. MEMPHIS +8.5 (+3.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -3.5 (+1.4), 2. MIAMI -8.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-DEN OVER 218 (+3.9), 2. PHX-ATL OVER 249 (+1.9), 3. CHA-OKC OVER 225 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-IND UNDER 248.5 (-2.6), 2. TOR-HOU UNDER 231.5 (-1.0), 3. NOP-SAS UNDER 233.5 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +3 (+3.3), 2. MEMPHIS +8.5 (+2.5), 3. ATLANTA +3.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -8.5 (+4.0), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -16 (+3.0), 3. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-OKC OVER 225 (+2.0), 2. MIA-WSH OVER 227.5 (+1.8), 3. GSW-MEM OVER 224.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-ATL UNDER 249 (-1.2), 2(tie). LAC-DET UNDER 238.5 (-0.8) and SAC-IND UNDER 248.5 (-0.8) and TOR-HOU UNDER 231.5 (-0.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(523) CHARLOTTE at (524) OKLAHOMA CITY
* CHARLOTTE has won the last six ATS at Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(517) GOLDEN STATE at (518) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is on nine-game ATS winning streaking hosting Golden State
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(511) LA CLIPPERS at (512) DETROIT
* Road teams are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 of the LAC-DET series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(509) MIAMI at (510) WASHINGTON
* The last four games of the MIA-WAS series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(521) NEW ORLEANS at (522) SAN ANTONIO
* NEW ORLEANS is on a seven-game ATS winning streak vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(525) ORLANDO at (526) MINNESOTA
* ORLANDO is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(513) PHOENIX at (514) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is on a five-game ATS winning streak hosting Phoenix
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(527) PORTLAND at (528) DENVER
* DENVER has won the last six ATS hosting Portland
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(515) SACRAMENTO at (516) INDIANA
* Underdogs are on a 6-1 ATS surge in the SAC-IND series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(519) TORONTO at (520) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is 7-2 ATS in the last nine versus Toronto
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

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