The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ORLANDO, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, ATLANTA, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, MEMPHIS, ATLANTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): MEMPHIS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-IND, DEN-MIA, CHA-MEM, CLE-NOP, GSW-DAL, ATL-POR, LAL-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-DET, CHI-IND, GSW-DAL, LAL-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BKN-ORL, PLAY OVER in DEN-MIA, PLAY OVER in CHA-MEM, PLAY OVER in ATL-POR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 121-85 SU but 88-116-1 ATS (43.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/13: Fade ORLANDO vs. Brooklyn
System Match: FADE ORLANDO (-7 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 68-42 SU but 46-63-1 ATS (42.2%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/13: Fade ORLANDO vs. Brooklyn
System Match: FADE ORLANDO (-7 vs BKN)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 56-46 SU and 55-46-1 ATS (54.5%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
3/13: MEMPHIS vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+1.5 vs CHA)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 10-2 SU and ATS (81.8%).
3/13 vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4 vs CHI)

The LA LAKERS have gone 21-10 Over the total (67.7%) on the road so far this season.
3/13 at Sacramento
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)

TORONTO has gone Over the total in its last 15 schedule spots when playing consecutive road games.
3/13 at Detroit
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/13: FADE ATLANTA at Portland
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-3.5 at POR)

* MEMPHIS is 27-13 SU and 24-15 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
3/13: MEMPHIS vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+1.5 vs CHA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 118-34 SU and 97-55 ATS (63.8%) run.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-7 vs CLE)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 86-55 SU and 84-54-3 ATS (60.9%) surge
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+3.5 at DET), PLAY CHARLOTTE (-1.5 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 59-20 SU and 52-26-1 ATS (66.7%).
System Matches: PLAY CHARLOTTE (-1.5 at MEM)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 106-112 SU but 114-91-3 ATS (55.6%), including 83-48 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+3.5 at DET)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 236-187 SU but 181-231-11 ATS (43.9%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-60 ATS.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-7 vs. GSW), FADE SACRAMENTO (+2 vs. LAL)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 207-229 SU and 194-238-4 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE BROOKLYN (+7 at ORL), FADE NEW ORLEANS (-7 vs CLE)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.0% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (155-171 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-195 ATS, 51.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING TORONTO (+3.5 at DET)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-60 SU and 67-49-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+3.5 at DET)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +2 (+2.1), 2. BROOKLYN +7 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7 (+4.1), 2. DENVER -3.5 (+1.7), 3. INDIANA -4 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +7 (+2.9), 2. SACRAMENTO +2 (+2.4), 3. TORONTO +3.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7 (+4.1), 2. ATLANTA -3.5 (+1.1), 3. CHARLOTTE -1.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-POR OVER 218 (+2.4), 2. LAL-SAC OVER 238 (+1.7), 3. GSW-DAL OVER 233 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-MEM UNDER 203.5 (-3.5), 2. CLE-NOP UNDER 216.5 (-2.5), 3. CHI-IND UNDER 229 (-0.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +2 (+2.1), 2. BROOKLYN +7 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -7 (+3.6), 2. ATLANTA -3.5 (+1.7), 3. DENVER -3.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-SAC OVER 238 (+6.3), 2. ATL-POR OVER 218 (+4.8), 3. GSW-DAL OVER 233 (+3.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-MEM UNDER 203.5 (-2.9), 2. CLE-NOP UNDER 216.5 (-2.4), 3. CHI-IND UNDER 229 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(559) TORONTO at (560) DETROIT
* DETROIT has won the last six ATS hosting Toronto
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(561) BROOKLYN at (562) ORLANDO
* Home teams have won the last five ATS in the BRK-ORL series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(563) CHICAGO at (564) INDIANA
* INDIANA is on a 4-1 ATS run versus Chicago
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(565) DENVER at (566) MIAMI
* DENVER is on a 6-0 ATS streak at Miami
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(567) CHARLOTTE at (568) MEMPHIS
* The last four games of the CHA-MEM series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(569) CLEVELAND at (570) NEW ORLEANS
* Favorites have won the last three ATS in the CLE-NOP series
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(571) GOLDEN STATE at (572) DALLAS
* The last six games of the GSW-DAL series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(573) ATLANTA at (574) PORTLAND
* Home teams are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of the ATL-POR series
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

(575) LA LAKERS at (576) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is on a 7-1 ATS run versus LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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