The following is a collection of NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted NBA betting trends features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, HOUSTON, PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS, ORLANDO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, HOUSTON, PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS, ORLANDO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, PORTLAND ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-CHA, LAC-TOR, CLE-MIL, POR-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ORL-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): DAL-ATL, PHX-IND, OKC-NOP

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 170-112 SU and 167-107 ATS (60.9%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/26: ORLANDO at Memphis
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-6 at MEM)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 65-37 SU and 62-37-3 ATS (62.6%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/26: NEW ORLEANS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-2 vs OKC)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 41-37 SU and 40-37-1 ATS (51.9%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/26: INDIANA vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+4.5 vs PHX)

* Over the total was 97-63 (60.6%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
1/26: Over the total in MEMPHIS-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 212.5)

* Under the total was 81-50 (61.8%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/26: Under the total in INDIANA-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 243.5)

* Under the total was 41-36 (53.2%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/26: Under the total in PHOENIX-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 243.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 20-14 SU and 23-9-1 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home scenario game over the last three seasons
1/26: INDIANA vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+4.5 vs PHX)

* MEMPHIS is 48-17 SU and 38-26 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
1/26: MEMPHIS vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+6 vs ORL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following NBA betting trends detail five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 115-30 SU and 96-49 ATS (66.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs CLE)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on an 80-50 SU and 78-49-3 ATS (61.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY PORTLAND (+3 at SAS)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 215-219 SU and 188-236-10 ATS (44.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (+4.5 vs PHX), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+2 at NOP), FADE NEW ORLEANS (-2 vs OKC), FADE PORTLAND (+3 at SAS)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 189-211 SU and 173-225-2 ATS (43.5%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 at TOR), FADE NEW ORLEANS (-2 vs OKC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 204-201 SU, but 181-212-12 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-2 vs OKC)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 128-44 SU and 97-73-2 ATS (57.1%).
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-6 at MEM)

NBA Streak Systems

The following NBA betting trends detail nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 160-201 ATS (44.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-93 SU and 47-63-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE PHOENIX (-4.5 at IND)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +4.5 (+3.3), 2. CHARLOTTE +5.5 (+1.2), 3. MEMPHIS +6 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -2.5 (+0.6), 2. LA CLIPPERS -8 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +4.5 (+2.2), 2. CLEVELAND +5.5 (+1.7), 3. PORTLAND +3.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -5.5 (+2.7), 2. DALLAS -2.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-MEM OVER 212.5 (+3.4), 2. POR-SAS OVER 229.5 (+3.2), 3. LAC-TOR OVER 235.5 (+2.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-NOP UNDER 239.5 (-2.8), 2.  DAL-ATL UNDER 244.5 (-5.4), 3. PHX-IND UNDER 243.5 (-1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +4.5 (+2.9), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY +1.5 (+1.8), 3. PORTLAND +3.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+1.6), 2. LA CLIPPERS -8 (+1.0), 3. DALLAS -2.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-MEM OVER 212.5 (+3.6), 2. POR-SAS OVER 229.5 (+3.5), 3. LAC-TOR OVER 235.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-ATL UNDER 244.5 (-6.0), 2. OKC-NOP UNDER 239.5 (-2.8), 3. PHX-IND UNDER 243.5 (-0.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(569) CLEVELAND at (570) MILWAUKEE
* Favorites had won the last eight ATS in the CLE-MIL series
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(557) DALLAS at (558) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 hosting Dallas
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(559) HOUSTON at (560) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE has won the last four ATS hosting Houston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(563) LA CLIPPERS at (564) TORONTO
* Road teams are on a 6-2 ATS surge in the LAC-TOR series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(567) OKLAHOMA CITY at (568) NEW ORLEANS
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won the last seven ATS at New Orleans
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(565) ORLANDO at (566) MEMPHIS
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the ORL-MEM series at Memphis
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(561) PHOENIX at (562) INDIANA
* The last five games of the PHO-IND series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(571) PORTLAND at (572) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the POR-SAN series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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