The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, January 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at BET VOLUME:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, DENVER, BOSTON, PHOENIX

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing the majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until somethings changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS ML, DENVER ML, BOSTON ML, LA LAKERS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-WSH, BOS-HOU, IND-PHX, POR-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).

System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIA-ORL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).

System Matches (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): IND-PHX

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 167-112 SU and 164-107 ATS (60.5%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/21: LA CLIPPERS vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-11 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 62-37 SU & 59-37-3 ATS (61.5%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/21: LA CLIPPERS vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-11 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 50-26 SU and 48-26-2 ATS (64.9%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
1/21: LA CLIPPERS vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-11 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 33-13 SU and 29-14-3 ATS (67.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
1/21: LA CLIPPERS vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-11 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 22-18 SU and 24-16 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/21: WASHINGTON vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13.5 vs DEN)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 40-33 SU and 38-34-1 ATS (52.8%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/21: HOUSTON vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+11 vs BOS)

1/21: WASHINGTON vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13.5 vs DEN)

* Over the total was 95-62 (60.5%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days  Rest.
1/21: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)

* Over the total was 68-42 (61.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/21: Over the total in WASHINGTON-DENVER
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238.5)

* Under the total was 38-34 (52.8%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/21: Under the total in BOSTON-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227)

1/21: Under the total in DENVER-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 238.5)

* Over the total was 46-30 (60.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.

1/21: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM-SPECIFIC SCHEDULING TRENDS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 119-23 SU but just 56-84-2 ATS (40%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-11 vs BKN), FADE DENVER (-13.5 at WSH), FADE BOSTON (-11 at HOU)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 69-56 (55.2%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 126-101 (55.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 171-119 (59%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-LAC (o/u at 225.5), DEN-WSH (o/u at 238.5), BOS-HOU (o/u at 227), POR-LAL (o/u at 228)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 247-195 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in POR-LAL (o/u at 228)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 203-198 SU, but 179-210-12 ATS (46%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-11 vs BKN), FADE INDIANA (+5 at PHX)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). WASHINGTON +13.5 (+1.8) and HOUSTON +11 (+1.8), 3. ORLANDO +1 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -10.5 (+1.0), 2. LA LAKERS -10.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +11 (+2.8), 2. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+1.6), 3. ORLANDO +1 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DENVER -13.5 (+0.4) and PHOENIX -5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-LAL UNDER 228 (-2.0), 2. DEN-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-1.4), 3. MIA-ORL UNDER 215 (-0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +11 (+2.3), 2. INDIANA +5 (+0.8), 3. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -10.5 (+1.7), 2. MIAMI -1 (+1.0), 3. LA LAKERS -10.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-LAC OVER 225.5 (+2.6), 2. BOS-HOU OVER 227 (+1.5), 3. IND-PHX OVER 248 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-LAL UNDER 228 (-3.1), 2. MIA-ORL UNDER 215 (-1.6), 3. DEN-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(569) BOSTON at (570) HOUSTON
* BOSTON is on a 6-1 ATS surge vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(563) BROOKLYN at (564) LA CLIPPERS
* BROOKLYN is on a 5-0 ATS run at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(565) DENVER at (566) WASHINGTON
* DENVER has won the last four ATS vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(571) INDIANA at (572) PHOENIX
* Road teams are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight of the IND-PHO series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(567) MIAMI at (568) ORLANDO
* MIAMI is on a three-game ATS winning streak vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(573) PORTLAND at (574) LA LAKERS
* Under the total is 9-4 in the last 13 of the POR-LAL series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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