The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in a NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It was a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA last season, that group produced a 19-11 ATS record (63.3%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 30 games was only 3.9% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MINNESOTA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on money line wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority groups was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, NEW YORK ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-UTA, MEM-MIN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-UTA, IND-SAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 22-17 SU and 24-15 ATS (61.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/18: TORONTO vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+2 vs CHI)

* Over the total was 68-41 (62.4%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/18: OVER the total in TORONTO-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)

* Over the total was 20-11 (64.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
1/18: OVER the total in MINNESOTA-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215)

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* TORONTO is 29-7 SU & 27-9 ATS in the 3rdStraightHome game scenario over the last two seasons
1/18: TORONTO vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+2 vs CHI)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 69-55 (55.6%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 126-101 (55.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 170-117 (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in WSH-NYK (o/u at 233.5), PLAY OVER in MEM-MIN (o/u at 215)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 247-193 (56.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in OKC-UTA (o/u at 244), PLAY UNDER in MEM-MIN (o/u at 215)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 187-206 SU and 169-222-2 ATS (43.2%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-12 vs MEM), FADE TORONTO (+2 vs CHI)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 203-195 SU, but 179-207-12 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last three seasons.

System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-12 vs MEM), FADE TORONTO (+2 vs CHI)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 122-43 SU and 93-70-2 ATS (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO (-2 at TOR), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 at UTA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +2 (+3.2), 2. UTAH +3.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+3.7), 2. MINNESOTA -12 (+2.6), 3. NEW YORK -12 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +3.5 (+1.7), 2. TORONTO +2 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -12 (+1.3), 2. NEW YORK -12 (+0.9), 3. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-MIN OVER 215 (+1.7), 2. IND-SAC OVER 248 (+1.6), 3. OKC-UTA OVER 244 (+1.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-TOR UNDER 228 (-2.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +2 (+4.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+3.5), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+2.4), 3. NEW YORK -12 (+2.0)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-NYK OVER 233.5 (+1.8), 2. OKC-UTA OVER 244 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-SAC UNDER 248 (-5.4), 2. MEM-MIN UNDER 215 (-1.9), 3. CHI-TOR UNDER 228 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(521) CHICAGO at (522) TORONTO
* Favorites are on a 12-2 ATS surge in the CHI-TOR series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(523) WASHINGTON at (524) NEW YORK
* Road teams have won the last nine ATS in the WAS-NYK series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(525) OKLAHOMA CITY at (526) UTAH
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-4 ATS versus Utah since 2018
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(527) MEMPHIS at (528) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six games of the MEM-MIN series at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(529) INDIANA at (530) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs are on a 5-1 ATS run in the IND-SAC series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

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