The following is a collection of VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the games of Wednesday, January 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, HOUSTON, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, PHOENIX

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NONE YET TODAY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS, GOLDEN STATE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): CLE-MIL matchup (MIL has HANDLE, CLE has NUMBER OF BETS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): CHARLOTTE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA ML, HOUSTON ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criterion, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-WSH, CHA-DET, PHX-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MEM-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in PHX-DAL, PLAY OVER in OKC-SAS

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 169-112 SU and 166-107 ATS (60.8%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/24: GOLDEN STATE vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 vs ATL)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 109-78 SU but 78-107-1 ATS (42.2%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/24: Fade HOUSTON vs. Portland
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-10.5 vs POR)

1/24: Fade MIAMI vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-9.5 vs MEM)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 45-36 SU but 31-50 ATS (38.3%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
1/24: Fade HOUSTON vs. Portland
System Match: Fade HOUSTON (-10.5 vs POR)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 64-37 SU and 61-37-3 ATS (62.2%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/24: GOLDEN STATE vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 vs ATL)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 52-26 SU and 50-26-2 ATS (65.8%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
1/24: GOLDEN STATE vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 vs ATL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 60-37 SU but 39-57-1 ATS (40.6%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/24: Fade MIAMI vs. Memphis
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-9.5 vs MEM)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 33-14 SU and 32-13-2 ATS (71.1%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
1/24: GOLDEN STATE vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 vs ATL)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 54-21 SU and 46-26-3 ATS (63.9%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
1/24: HOUSTON vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-10.5 vs POR)

* Home teams playing an 2DaysRest were 27-18 SU but 21-23-1 ATS (47.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/24: FADE HOUSTON vs. Portland
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-10.5 vs POR)

* Over the total was 96-63 (60.4%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
1/24: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235.5)

* Over the total was 47-31 (60.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/24: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235.5)

* Over the total was 33-26 (55.9%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/24: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242)

* Over the total was 22-15 (59.5%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
1/24: Over the total in HOUSTON-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)

* Over the total was 26-20 (56.5%) last season when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/24: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235.5)

The following VSiN Analytics NBA betting trends are team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA was 29-10 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
1/24: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235.5)

* MEMPHIS is 19-7 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
1/24: Under the total in MIAMI-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 212.5)

* WASHINGTON is 15-3 Over the total at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last three seasons
1/24: Over the total in WASHINGTON-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following VSiN Analytics NBA betting trends systems detail five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 114-30 SU and 95-49 ATS (66%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-6.5 vs CLE)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on an 80-49 SU and 78-48-3 ATS (61.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+3.5 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 123-24 SU but just 57-88-2 ATS (39.3%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-11 at WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 71-56 (55.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 129-103 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 172-119 (59.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIN-WSH (o/u at 229.5), PLAY OVER in POR-HOU (o/u at 222.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

The following VSiN Analytics NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 189-210 SU and 173-224-2 ATS (43.6%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6.5 at MIL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 204-200 SU, but 181-211-12 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6.5 at MIL)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 126-44 SU and 95-73-2 ATS (56.5%).
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 vs ATL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following VSiN Analytics NBA betting trends are derived from nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (140-160 ATS, 46.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-177 ATS, 52.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING WASHINGTON (+11 vs MIN)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 52-44 SU and 56-38-3 ATS (59.6%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+11 vs MIN)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 160-200 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-93 SU and 47-63-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+6.5 at MIL)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 34-52 ATS (39.5%) in the next game, including 15-28 ATS (34.9%) on the road over the last three seasons
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+6.5 at MIL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following VSiN Analytics NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +8 (+1.6), 2. WASHINGTON +11 (+0.8), 3. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -9.5 (+2.0), 2. GOLDEN STATE -6.5 (+8.4), 3. PHOENIX -2.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +8 (+5.4), 2. PORTLAND +10.5 (+2.8), 3. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -11 (+2.5), 2. MIAMI -9.5 (+1.0), 3. DETROIT -3.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-MIA OVER 212.5 (+3.0), 2. CLE-MIL OVER 236.5 (+1.5), 3. CHA-DET OVER 232.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-GSW UNDER 235.5 (-2.4), 2. PHX-DAL UNDER 240.5 (-1.1), 3. MIN-WSH UNDER 229.5 (-0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+2.1), 2. WASHINGTON +11 (+1.6), 3. SAN ANTONIO +8 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -9.5 (+2.6), 2. GOLDEN STATE -6.5 (+2.4), 3. MILWAUKEE -6.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-MIA OVER 212.5 (+3.0), 2. CHA-DET OVER 232.5 (+2.8), 3. ATL-GSW OVER 235.5 (+1.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKC-SAS UNDER 242 (-0.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(527) MINNESOTA at (528) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON has won the last seven ATS versus Minnesota
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(529) CHARLOTTE at (530) DETROIT
* The last four games of the CHA-DET h2h series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(531) MEMPHIS at (532) MIAMI
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the MEM-MIA series at Miami
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(533) PORTLAND at (534) HOUSTON
* PORTLAND has won the last five ATS at Houston
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

(535) CLEVELAND at (536) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 hosting Cleveland
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(537) OKLAHOMA CITY at (538) SAN ANTONIO
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on an 8-1-1 ATS run versus San Antonio
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(539) PHOENIX at (540) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(541) ATLANTA at (542) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites have swept the last eight ATS in the ATL-GSW series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

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