Oscars Betting Odds and Predictions
The nominations are out for the 96th Academy Awards and much of the value is gone in regards to the Big Five categories. There is a lot of value in the below the line categories such as screenplay and costume design. I’ll breakdown some of the categories I think have the best chance at pulling an upset and some that are too close to call right now with this year’s Academy Awards odds and Oscars predictions.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay Odds
- Oppenheimer -110
- Barbie +275
- American Fiction +330
- Poor Things +550
- The Zone of Interest +2500
Let’s start with one of the most competitive categories this year, Adapted Screenplay. I can see four of the five nominees taking home the Oscar. The Best Picture favorite is naturally the favorite in adapted screenplay as well. That is relatively short when you compare it to it’s Best Picture Odds at (-1000).
In this years race I’ll have at least three bets in this category. Oppenheimer will serve as my hedge because I think being able to adapt a 784 page book and write it entirely in the first person (which most screenplays are never written that way) is an incredible achievement. Looking at Poor Things, the level of difficulty is so high with this type of fantastical story and to pull it off with such style and respect to the source material for the screen should be commended. I think Poor Things is a real contender in this category and could pull the upset. As for Barbie, taking IP and turning it into the biggest winner at the box office is an accomplishment in itself. After a failed attempt to campaign as an original screenplay, it now has to contend in this loaded category. Greta Gerwig, both directed and co-wrote Barbie with her now husband Noah Baumbach missed out on being nominated in Best Director might gain some traction in this category as a sort of make up call and a way to reward the biggest film of the year.
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer (-110)
Could Win: Poor Things (+550)
Best Original Screenplay
Oscars Best Original Screenplay Odds
- The Holdovers -165
- Anatomy of a Fall +135
- Past Lives +500
- Maestro +2500
- May December +3500
If adapted was the main event, this would be a very close co-main. With the departure of Barbie to Adapted Screenplay it leaves this category open as well. With three real possible contenders I can see this race heating up as we march our way to March 10th. The Holdovers is currently the favorite and I think that’s fine. Alexander Payne’s Drama has hit all the right notes and with a complex story focused around the three main characters it is a good old fashioned script that will please the voting members.
Anatomy of a Fall snagged the Golden Globe for Screenplay along with Best Foreign Language Film. Despite not being France’s selection for Best International Film it still managed to get three nominations in Original Screenplay, Director and Best Picture. This is quite the accomplishment for a foreign language film without the help of it’s own countries film board.
Along with it’s wins at the Golden Globes and nominations in both Best Picture and Director I think Anatomy of a Fall is a real contender in this years race. Let’s not forget the A24 darling that is Past Lives. So many people in the film community love this film and think Celine Song was snubbed for not being nominated for Best Director. So this should serve as some conciliation that she was nominated for her work in writing this story about lost then found love. A simple, but impactful story that nearly every person can relate to. It can be a contender and at it could be the long shot bet of the year.
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall (+135)
Could Win: The Holdovers (-165)
Best Costume Design
Oscars Best Costume Design Odds
- Barbie -450
- Poor Things +275
- Napoleon +1600
- Oppenheimer +1800
- Killers of the Flower Moon +1800
This is certainly could be a very interesting category depending on which side of the fence you land on. If you are in the camp that thinks Barbie is far and way the run away
winner based on the fact that the pops of color and variety of outfits and style throughout Barbie World than maybe stay way from this category as the value is not there for Barbie.
If you think there is room for a twisted Victorian fantasy, Poor Things could be up your alley. The diversity in wardrobe and how it is used to depict Bella’s (Emma Stone) transformation from adolescence to adulthood is something the Academy is looking for. Period pieces tend to do well in this category so if you looking for an edge that’s the one I would use when handicapping Best Costume Design.
Predicted Winner: Barbie (-450)
Could Win: Poor Things (+275)
Other Predictions:
Best Film Editing
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer (-1600)
Could Win: Killers Of The Flower Moon (12/1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Winner: What Was I Made For? (Barbie) (-600)
Could Win: I’m Just Ken (Barbie) (+400)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer (-1100)
Could Win: Killers Of The Flower Moon (10/1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Winner: Godzilla Minus One (+100)
Could Win: The Creator (-115)
Best Original Score
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer (-2000)
Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon (11/1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Winner: The Boy and the Heron (+130)
Could Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (-215)
