2023-24 NFL Season Baltimore Ravens Review
Yesterday, I provided an overview of a series examining the 2023 NFL season, and which teams saw their power rating rise or fall the most, according to the T Shoe Index. Today, we start diving in with the Baltimore Ravens, who finished 13-4 and at the top of the AFC North, including a ridiculous 7-1 on the road.
Most importantly, Lamar Jackson and company finished a phenomenal 12-7 (63% ATS), covering by an average of 7.6 points per game, so it wasn’t just TSI that was apparently too low on John Harbaugh’s team, as the Ravens’ TSI rating rose 7.4 points from start to finish in 2023.
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Above, you’ll see the Ravens’ TSI rating as it fluctuated throughout the season, but ultimately peaking at the right time, right at the end of the season heading into the playoffs. Baltimore had some phenomenal performances last season, beating the Detroit Lions 38-6, Cleveland 28-3, and the 49ers 33-19, so it’s not surprising to see their power rating elevate throughout the season.
Ravens Offense
Lamar Jackson had the offense humming, checking in at #2 in the TSI offensive ratings, while the rugged defense was atop the TSI defensive ratings for the entire league. I had them favored by five over the Chiefs (based on data, not accounting for Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes magic), before they ultimately lost by a touchdown to the reigning champs.
Some key stats that were indicative of Baltimore’s success in 2023: 4th in the NFL in success rate (47.4%), 6th in EPA/play (.069) – both of which helped result in the 28.9 TSI offensive rating, meaning they’d be expected to score ~29 points on the average NFL defense (average is ~23).
Ravens Defense
Defensively, their EPA/play was an absurd -.127, 2nd in the league behind Cleveland, with a 40.8% defensive success rate, good for 6th in the NFL, resulting in a 15.7 TSI defensive rating. All of that to say, I think their success in 2023 is replicable.
Their 2024 win total currently sits at 11.5, with the over being priced at +110. I haven’t run projections yet, but plus-money on 12-5 or better doesn’t seem like a crazy flier to take on Baltimore this year.
