NFL Week 6 Picks:

The NFL season is just flying along, as we’re into Week 6 already. It is nuts to think that we’ll be a third of the way done by the end of Monday Night Football. But, we sure have learned a lot over these first five weeks – bet on underdogs and retire to a private island.

It’s never actually that simple and pups won’t keep barking at the same rate that they are now. Maybe this is the week that it changes. Maybe it isn’t. We do have a lot of data points and a lot of stats racked up now, so there are a lot of things to analyze for each and every game.

 

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Here are my Week 6 NFL best bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10/9, 11:00 a.m. PT

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5, 49.5)

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Cardinals and Packers will do battle at Lambeau Field on Sunday. The second weekend of October isn’t a bad time to be going to the occasionally frozen tundra, so it could obviously be worse for Arizona. It is honestly shocking that the Cardinals are only 2-3 given that they’ve scored on their first offensive possession in all five games. That’s another streak that will be ending.

Maybe it’ll end this week, as Matt Lafleur and the Packers have historically done pretty well with the scripted drives and first-half scoring. I feel like Jordan Love will progress the further he gets from his injury and should be able to get back into the form that he had last season. The last five quarters seem to have been good steps in that direction.

This is still an Arizona defense that has allowed 5.9 yards per play and ranks in the bottom part of the league in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference. They are in the bottom 10 in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed. They are 27th in Dropback EPA and 32nd in Dropback Success Rate. Sensing a pattern here?

The passing numbers are off to a slow start with Love’s injury and Malik Willis filling in, but this was the fourth-best offense by Dropback EPA last season and I can’t help but feel like they find their stride against Arizona’s absence of a pass rush and questionable secondary.

Pick: Packers -5

Atlanta Falcons (-6, 47) at Carolina Panthers

4:25 p.m. PT (FOX)

The Panthers boast a league average offense by EPA/play since Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young. In that span, Carolina has actually found a lot of rushing success with Chuba Hubbard & Co. The Panthers are sixth in Rush EPA over the last three games and third in Rushing Success Rate.

For the season, the Falcons rank 21st in EPA/play on defense. They get very little pressure on the QB and rank 26th in Rush EPA against and 30th in Rushing Success Rate against. Say what you will about Dalton and the personnel that the Panthers are deploying, but Dave Canales is a pretty brilliant offensive mind and I feel like he’ll be able to isolate the mismatches presented in this game.

And, if nothing else, Dalton is at least a veteran guy who has taken better care of the football and been more effective at avoiding sacks than Young was.

The Falcons do have the half-bye after playing on Thursday last week, but that game against the Bucs was the first one in which their offense really took off. They’ve given up at least 128 rushing yards in every game and gave up 160 to the offense that Canales used to coach. Maybe Carolina doesn’t win here, but surely they can keep it close.

Pick: Panthers +6

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