Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games on The Sweat from 8 to 10 a.m. ET this morning, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 3 action…
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 54)
The Chargers (0-2) just fell to the Titans 27-24 in overtime, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Vikings (0-2) just lost to the Eagles 34-28, pushing as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen the Vikings flip to a 1-point home favorite. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this move was caused by pros backing Minnesota at home, flipping the Vikings from a dog to a favorite. Minnesota is only receiving 50% of bets but 61% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. The Vikings enjoy a big rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Chargers played on Sunday. Minnesota also has value as a short favorite in a high total game (54), with more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. The Vikings are -115 on the moneyline. The Chargers will miss star RB Austin Ekeler due to an ankle injury.
1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 42)
The Saints (2-0) just edged the Panthers 20-17 but pushed as 3-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Packers (1-1) just fell to the Falcons 25-24 but covered as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Packers at Lambeau. However, despite receiving 58% of bets we’ve seen the Packers fall from -2.5 to -1.5. Some shops are even down to -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on New Orleans, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog Saints. Road dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%) this season and 438-348 ATS (56%) since 2018. Shorts road dogs +3 or less are 6-1 ATS (86%) this season and 105-80 ATS (57%) since 2019. The Saints are also in a prime teaser spot (+1.5 to +7.5), passing through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7.
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3, 46)
The Falcons (2-0) just edged the Packers 25-24 but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. Conversely, the Lions (1-1) are coming off a 37-31 overtime loss to the Seahawks, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Detroit listed as high as a 6-point home favorite. Despite 73% of bets laying the points with the Lions, we’ve seen Detroit tumble all the way down to -3. This indicates smart money grabbing the points with the road dog Falcons, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Atlanta is only receiving 27% of bets, offering excellent contrarian value in addition to the sharp line move in their favor. Short road dogs +6 or less are 10-2 ATS (83%) this season and 184-115 ATS (62%) since 2019. Dan Campbell is 24-15 ATS as a dog (62%) but only 4-5 ATS (44%) as a favorite. Those looking to back Atlanta should shop around and be sure to find the hook +3.5.
1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-3, 38.5)
The Titans (1-1) just took down the Chargers 27-24 in overtime, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Browns (1-1) just fell to the Steelers 26-22, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Currently 70% of bets and dollars are grabbing the points with the Titans. This heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support has steamed the Titans down from +4.5 to +3. Mike Vrabel is 2-0 ATS as a dog this season and 25-15 ATS (62%) as a dog in his career. The Titans have value as a dog in a low total game (38.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Cleveland is on a short week, having just played a physical division game against the Steelers on Monday. The Browns also just lost star RB Nick Chubb to a season-ending knee injury. Those looking to back the Titans would be wise to shop around for the hook +3.5.
8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 43)
The Steelers (1-1) are coming off a 26-22 win over the Browns, winning outright as a 2.5-point home dog. On the flip side, the Raiders (1-1) just got rolled by the Bills 38-10, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick’em with some shops even listing Pittsburgh a short 1-point road favorite. The public is backing the Steelers off a win and fading the Raiders off a blowout loss. However, despite 56% of bets taking Pittsburgh we’ve seen this line flip to Raiders -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Vegas, with pros backing the home team. Vegas also fits the "dog to favorite" wiseguy system match. The Raiders are only receiving 44% of bets but 61% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Vegas enjoys a rest vs tired advantage, having played on Sunday while the Steelers played a physical division game on Monday night and now must travel to the West Coast on a short week. Those looks to follow the sharp move but wary of laying points could instead target Vegas -145 on the moneyline.
