Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football.
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 34.5)
The Chargers (5-8) have lost four of their last five games and just fell to the Broncos 24-7, failing to cover as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Raiders (5-8) have dropped three straight games and just lost to the Vikings 3-0, pushing as 3-point home dogs.
This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. However, once news broke that Chargers QB Justin Herbert was ruled out for the season with a finger injury we saw this line completely flip to Raiders -3 at home. Easton Stick will start in Herbert’s place.
Currently 62% of bets and 65% of money is laying the points with the Raiders at home, signaling a combination of both Pro and Joe support. Las Vegas is also receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement, a classic smart money indicator. Some shops are juicing up the Raiders -3 to -115, signaling a possible further rise up to Raiders -3.5. This movement is all one-sided toward Vegas without any signs up buyback yet on Los Angeles.
Thursday Night Football home favorites are 89-75 ATS (54%) since 2006, as the short week disproportionately benefits the better team who doesn’t have to travel. Thursday Night home favorites are 123-46 (73%) straight up since 2006. Those looking to back the Raiders but wary of laying the points for fear of a push or short win that doesn’t cover could instead target Las Vegas on the moneyline at -165.
The total opened at 42.5 but with Herbert out we’ve seen the line fall all the way to 34.5. It bottomed out at 33.5 before some over buyback raised it back to 34.5 where it rests now. Currently 64% of bets and 68% of money is on the under. Unders are 117-90 (57%) this season. Primetime unders are 30-15 (67%). When the total is less than 39 the under is 21-12 (64%). Divisional unders are 91-70 (57%) since 2022. Both teams are 10-3 to the under this season, tied for the best under record in the NFL. Vegas is dead last in pace of play.
Injuries could play a big factor in this one. Aside from Herbert being out, the Chargers will also miss star WR Keenan Allen. On the Raiders’ side, WR Davante Adams and RB Josh Jacobs are both questionable.
