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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s NFL Wild Card doubleheader.

4:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-10, 38.5)

The Steelers (10-7) are the 7-seed and won three straight to end the regular season, beating the Ravens 17-10 in Week 18 and covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (11-6) are the 2-seed and have won five straight, edging the Dolphins 21-14 in the regular season finale and covering as 2.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with the Bills listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. This line has bounced around all week, initially rising to Bills -10, then dropping to Bills -9 then rising back to Bills -10 after the game was postponed and moved to today due to the inclement weather in Buffalo. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take, with 50% of bets and dollars split evenly on both teams. Game day movement will be important here, especially as we sit on the key number of 10. If we start to see this line fall back to 9.5 across across the board that will be a good sign for the Steelers plus the points. But if this ticks up to -10.5 that will indicate respected money breaking toward laying the points with Buffalo.

The Steelers match several key playoff betting systems. Playoff dogs are 3-1 ATS this postseason and 46-30 ATS (61%) since 2017. Wild Card dogs are 23-11 ATS (68%) since 2017. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year are 3-0 ATS this postseason and 37-17 ATS (69%) since 2017. The Texans, Packers and Rams all covered in this spot over the weekend. 

The Steelers have correlative betting value as a big dog in a low total game (38.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the big number. Mike Tomlin is 59-34 ATS (63%) as a dog in his career across the regular and postseason. Meanwhile, Josh Allen is 2-6 ATS in the postseason. The Bills also went just 2-6 ATS this season as a favorite of 7-point or more. 

The total has also been on the move. It opened as high as 42.5 and plummeted all the way to 33 due to the expected snow storm. However, once the game was pushed back from Saturday to today we saw the total tick back up to 38.5 as the forecast has improved. We expect to see 15-20 degree temperatures with 10-15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a playoff game the under is 11-6 (65%) since 2017. The Steelers and Bills both went 11-6 to the under this season, tied for the 2nd best under teams in the NFL. 

Player Prop to Consider: Dalton Kincaid over 35.5 receiving yards (-115). Kincaid has gone over this number in 2 straight games, posting 87 yards against the Patriots and 84 against the Dolphins. With Gabe Davis ruled out with an injury, Kincaid is expected to receive more targets. Also, with the windy weather, Kincaid might be a security blanket over the middle in the short and intermediate passing game.

8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 43) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles (11-6) are the 5-seed but struggled down the stretch, losing five of their last six games and falling to the Giants 27-10 in Week 18, losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Buccaneers (9-8) are the 4-seed and won five of their last six games down the stretch, beating the Panthers 9-0 in the regular season finale and covering as 4.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with the Eagles listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Despite their struggles, the public still won’t quit the Eagles. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with Philadelphia. This line rose to Eagles -3 and has has there much of the week. However, we’ve seen some sharp buyback on Bucs +3 over the weekend, with most shops juicing up the Bucs +3 to -115, signaling a possible drop back down to 2.5. Those looking to back the Bucs would be wise to grab the key number of +3. If the line falls to +2.5 that would set up a great teaser for the Bucs +2.5 to +8.5, passing through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. 

Tampa Bay is only receiving 40% of bets, giving the Bucs contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game in addition to the late buyback. Wild Card dogs are 3-1 ATS this postseason and 23-11 ATS (68%) since 2018. The Bucs have the edge on defense, allowing just 19 PPG (7th best in the NFL), while the Eagles are giving up 25 PPG (30th). Philadelphia will also be without star WR AJ Brown due to injury. The Bucs are 11-6 ATS this season and 8-3 ATS as a dog, both the best in the NFL. 

Sharps have leaned under, dropping the total from 45 to 43.5. Some shops are even down to 43. Currently 51% of bets but 65% of money is sweating the under, a sharp contrarian bet split. Unders are 2-2 this postseason but 38-27 (58%) since 2018. The forecast calls for mid 60s with mild 5 MPH winds and possibly some rain. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, is 57% to the under historically. The Bucs went 11-6 to the under this season. The Eagles went 9-8 to the over. 

Player Prop to Consider: Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving yards (-130). This line has risen from 47.5 to 49.5 over the past 24-hours, signaling late sharp money. Goedert has only gone over this number 4 times this season but he is expected to have an expanded role in the passing game with AJ Brown missing the game. 

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