Black Friday Dolphins vs. Jets Week 12 odds and predictions
In the NFL’s first ever Black Friday matchup, we’re getting a game that features the New York Jets hosting the Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Dolphins are coming off a 20-13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and they’re likely viewing this meeting with the Jets as a great opportunity to cushion their lead atop the AFC East standings. The Jets just lost 32-6 against the Buffalo Bills and have now lost three games in a row. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Dolphins vs. Jets preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Dolphins vs. Jets
Date: Friday, November 24
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Channel: PRIME VIDEO
Dolphins vs. Jets Spread
The Jets are an absolute dumpster fire right now, which is something Mike Lombardi wrote about this week. After scoring just six points for the second time in two weeks, New York finally made the decision to bench Zach Wilson, leaving Tim Boyle (also known as “Aaron Rodgers’ friend”) as the team’s starting quarterback. Boyle has thrown for just three touchdowns with a whopping nine interceptions over 18 appearances in his NFL career. He has done nothing to prove that he is deserving of this opportunity, which is even more confusing with Trevor Siemian, a somewhat capable NFL quarterback, being his backup. All in all, none of this suggests the league’s third-worst scoring offense (15.0 points per game) is in for any sort of improvement — even in a matchup with a mediocre Miami defense.
Wilson didn’t offer much for the Jets offense, but he at least had a little juice in his legs. Boyle doesn’t offer any of that escapability, and he has proven to be mistake-prone throughout his career. So, not turning to Siemian is a questionable decision for New York. Siemian isn’t a quarterback that can go out and light up opposing offenses, but he has been able to efficiently move the ball down the field in the past — especially when playing for teams with effective rushing attacks. With all of that in mind, I’d be stunned if the Jets score 17 or so points in this game. And that’ll make it hard for New York to cover.
The Jets are fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA this season, and they have been especially stingy against the pass. However, the lack of a passable offense means that the Dolphins offense will be on the field a lot in this game. And if you give Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa enough opportunities, the Miami passing game will eventually strike. We saw something very similar when the Jets took on the Bills last week. Buffalo’s offense wasn’t all that impressive in the game, but the Bills still ended up scoring 32 points and winning by 26. Miami should be able to do something similar, especially with game breaking wideouts like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside. All it takes is a mistake or two for those guys to find the end zone, and you might see some out of the Jets secondary. It can be demoralizing to play great defense and not have your offense show up for you, and that’ll manifest itself at some point at the end of this season.
It’s also worth noting that the Jets are just 4-12 against the spread when facing teams that complete at least 61.0% of their passes in the second half of the season under Robert Saleh. That’s when the Jets have seen their quarterback play fall off a cliff, and New York has lost those games by an average of 10.1 points per game. So, against an explosive Dolphins offense, I can see this getting even uglier.
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Dolphins vs. Jets Total
This total isn’t high for a normal NFL game, but it feels a little high for a Friday afternoon game. And it definitely feels high for a game involving the Jets. I just don’t think we can count on New York scoring many points in this game, so Miami would have to do a ton of heavy lifting in order for this game to go Over. And while I do think the Dolphins will have a decent day offensively here, I’m not expecting them to score a ton of points. That would likely mean that the only way this Over hits is with a defensive touchdown. And while that isn’t exactly unlikely with Boyle at quarterback, I’d rather not bet on it.
The Under also happens to be 11-7 in the 18 games the Jets have played as home underdogs under Saleh. And New York comes into this one on a five-game Under streak, with none of them even coming close to going Over.
Dolphins vs. Jets Player Props
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Tim Boyle Over 28.5 Pass Attempts (-114 – Play to -135)
Before being benched in the loss to the Bills, Wilson had attempted at least 33 passes in each of his previous four games. He had also done so in six of the previous nine games he had played. That doesn’t have anything to do with New York’s approach offensively. The Jets just constantly fall behind in games because of their anemic offense, and that means they’re playing to catch up late in games. And while there’s a new quarterback under center for New York, I don’t think anything’s changing here.
Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction
I don’t usually like laying this many points, but you have to do it against this version of the Jets. It’s really hard to stay competitive with an offense this bad, especially against a Miami team that can score in the blink of an eye.
Lean: Dolphins -10
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