Buffalo Bills 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The 2023 season was a wild one for the Buffalo Bills. The team was 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS through the first 10 games of the season, but finished 6-1 SU/4-3 ATS to finish second in the AFC. The Bills were a sexy pick to make it out of the AFC, but they were eliminated by the Chiefs for the second time in three years. Buffalo enters the 2024 season with the same championship aspirations, but massive changes with the roster and a strong division will present a challenge.

Offense

Josh Allen remains in place at the most important position in football, and as long as he is healthy Buffalo will have a chance to compete. Allen had the highest offensive grade among quarterbacks according to PFF (92.1) in 2023, and he was third at the position in EPA per play (0.193). 

 

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Buffalo’s wide receiver depth chart looks questionable on paper after the losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (241 combined targets). Khalil Shakir – who caught 39 balls for 611 yards and two touchdowns last season – is the most productive returning receiver. Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool and Mack Hollins all join the team to form the main core. Rookie Keon Coleman – a second-round pick – is going to be expected to develop quickly. 

Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown played over 1,200 snaps at tackle in 2023. In 310 true pass set snaps Dawkins allowed just 29 pressures and Brown gave up just 26 in 313 snaps. Connor McGovern looks to be a decent replacement at center for Mitch Morse, who was released. At guard, David Edwards and O’Cyrus Torrence are penciled in as the starters. Edwards posted extremely good numbers, but in less than 200 snaps. Torrence, on the other hand, owned a 54.9 offensive grade and allowed 46 pressures for the season while posting a 48.2 pass blocking grade.

Defense

Safety is the biggest concern for Buffalo. None of the currently rostered defensive backs posted a PFF defensive grade higher than 65.3 (Cam Lewis). Projected starters are Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards. Edwards in particular allowed 23 receptions on 38 targets last season. 

Cornerback is the Bills’ strongest defensive position and might be the second-best group on the team outside of quarterback. Christian Benford is a legit corner who finished eighth at the position in PFF defensive grade in 2023. He allowed just two touchdowns all season, broke up seven passes and grabbed two interceptions. Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson ranked 11th and 17th respectively in PFF grading at the position.

The Bills are somewhat bland at linebacker, but there are no big weaknesses at the position group. Along the defensive line, Greg Rousseau anchors the group after a career year in which he posted seven sacks, 62 pressures and 32 tackles. A.J. Epenesa has yet to really show out, but is coming off the best season of his career. 

Outlook

Buffalo has one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the skill position group around him lacks explosive talent. How much better can Allen make them? It is safe to assume the Bills will be a good team competing for its division and a playoff spot, but the roster does not look like an elite group. Considering market expectations – win total of 10.5 and favored to win the division – this is a team that could have a disappointing season by those standards.

Buffalo Bills Prediction: Under 10.5 Wins

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