In Super Bowl LIX, we’re going to see the Kansas City Chiefs go for three championships in a row when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles at the Caesars Superdome. With the biggest game of the NFL season still to come, it’s a good time to grab a VSiN Pro subscription. We’re going right from this into our in-depth coverage of March Madness, and we’re also going to be posting a ton of MLB season preview content soon. On top of that, we’re still going hard providing you with analysis on the NBA and NHL. And for those of you that fancy some tennis, we’re doing a lot of that! Also, not only will we have all sorts of written content, but our live programming is hitting on all of these topics. With that out of the way, it’s time to get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for Chiefs vs. Eagles odds, predictions and best bets.

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How To Watch Chiefs vs. Eagles

When: Sunday, February 9th at 6:30 pm ET

Where: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana

Channel: FOX

Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, January 27th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Chiefs -130, Eagles +110

Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-110), Eagles +1.5 (-110)

Total: Over 49.5 (-110), Under 49.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs. Eagles Analysis

The Chiefs are going to be a trendy favorite this week. As we get closer to kickoff, our VSiN DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages will very likely confirm that. People just aren’t going to want to go against Patrick Mahomes in another big game.

There were all kinds of reasons to believe in Buffalo beating Kansas City last week, including a Bills win over the Chiefs earlier in the year. There was also the fact that the Bills were comparable defensively all season long, but they had the much better offense over the course of the season. But in the end, the big difference between the teams was that one had Mahomes and the other didn’t. It’s hard to downplay that late in a playoff game, and it isn’t just Mahomes. Andy Reid presses the right buttons as a postseason play caller, Steve Spagnuolo is as good a defensive coordinator as there is in this league and several other Kansas City players rise to the occasion in big moments — including Travis Kelce. Will any of that change against Philadelphia? 

The numbers look pretty good for the Eagles. While Kansas City was just 15th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.006) this season, Philadelphia was third (-0.087). And not only were the Eagles second in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.194), but they were third in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.024). Philadelphia’s defense, led by well-respected defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, should theoretically pose a big challenge to this Kansas City offense — especially with a young group of defensive backs that is peaking at the right time. 

Offensively, the Eagles also had an edge over the Chiefs in the regular season. Philadelphia was sixth in EPA per play (0.111), and it should come as no surprise that the Eagles were first in Rush EPA per play (0.053). Saquon Barkley has mostly looked like he was shot out of a cannon all season. Barkley is also averaging 147.3 rushing yards per game in the postseason, and he has found the end zone five times over the last two weeks. So, it’s not like this running game has slowed down. Also, Jalen Hurts just played his best game of the playoffs, completing 20 of 28 passes for 246 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for another three scores. 

There’s just a lot to like about what we’ve seen from Philadelphia all year, and it’s also worth pointing out that the Chiefs struggle to cover tight ends. No team in football gave up more receiving yards per game against the position, and the Eagles do a great job of scheming Dallas Goedert open. That’s something to keep an eye on when it comes to the outcome of this game, and it’s also something to consider on the player prop market. 

It should also be pointed out that the small postseason EPA per play sample favors Philadelphia on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have an EPA per play of 0.199 in three playoff games. The Chiefs have an EPA per play of 0.175 in two playoff games. Philadelphia’s EPA per play allowed is also -0.084. Kansas City’s is 0.120. 

Considering all of the above, you’re really deciding between resume — both regular season and postseason — and a proven ability to deliver in close games. And it’s hard to fault anybody for going with the latter. Not only has Kansas City won back-to-back Super Bowls, but the team is also 6-0 against the spread on a neutral field under Reid. Also, with Reid on the sidelines, the Chiefs are 50-23 ATS in games with lines between +3 and -3. Meanwhile, under Nick Sirianni, the Eagles are just 7-11 straight-up and 8-10 ATS as underdogs. 

In the end, as somebody that likes to roll with stats over narratives, I’m going to end up on the Philadelphia side. However, I can acknowledge that I hate myself for it. It’s the same reason I went with Buffalo last week, and I have burned myself fading Kansas City a million times. But I do generally like Philadelphia to run Barkley successfully here, and Hurts answered a lot of early-playoff questions with a big day against Washington. He also played very well the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl. And on the other side of the ball, I see the Chiefs receivers struggling to get open against a good secondary. And the Eagles defensive line has the talent required to cause some chaos.

As far as the total goes, I don’t have much of a read on it. Kansas City has played six neutral-field games and four Super Bowls under Reid, and the total is split in those contests. But the Under is 12-4-1 in the 17 games the Chiefs have played with two or more weeks of rest under him. It’s also 5-3 in Eagles playoff games under Sirianni, as well as 8-1-1 in the 10 games he has coached Philadelphia against teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Player Props

Dallas Goedert Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115) & Most Receiving Yards In Game (+850)

As previously mentioned, the Chiefs gave up more yards per game to opposing tight ends than any team in the league. That said, I really like Goedert to make an impact on this game. Goedert just had seven catches for 85 yards against the Commanders last game, and he has had at least 55 yards in three of the last four contests. So, I feel very good about him going Over 47.5 receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX. He went for 60 when these teams played in the Super Bowl two years ago.

I’d also sprinkle a little pizza money on Goedert to lead the game in receiving yards. The Eagles love going to Goedert on short crossers over the middle of the field, and that’s exactly the type of play the Chiefs can struggle to defend. So, it wouldn’t be shocking if Goedert has several receptions that go for big yardage.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Pick

I understand how dumb it might be to go against Mahomes in a big game, but the Eagles are a slightly better team on both sides of the ball. Also, in sports betting, usually the painfully obvious move ends up being painful. It can’t be as easy as just backing the Chiefs because of who their quarterback is. You have to factor in everything. Doing that makes it hard not to come away with a little interest in Philadelphia.

Bet: Eagles ML (+112)

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