The second of two Monday Night Football matchups in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season features the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Washington Commanders at Paycor Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 3 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
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How To Watch Commanders vs. Bengals
When: Monday, September 23rd at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Channel: ABC/ESPN+
Commanders vs. Bengals Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, September 22nd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bengals -340, Commanders +270
Spread: Bengals -7 (-112), Commanders +7 (-108)
Total: Over 46.5 (-112), Under 46.5 (-108)
Commanders vs. Bengals Analysis
The Commanders were as high as +8 at one point, but that was quickly gobbled up. All shops are now at +7 and +7.5 now, and it seems like the sharp money is on Washington. There’s a lot of action on Cincinnati in this game, but the line is holding strong — and dipping at some sportsbooks. That suggests public money on the Bengals. The total has also come down a little. It opened up at 48 and is down to 46.5 at most ‘books.
Cincinnati undeniably needs this game more. The Bengals can’t afford to start 0-3, and you can find out why in my Jaguars vs. Bills preview. So, I don’t see any scenario in which Cincinnati will come out flat here. But I’m not sure that means the Bengals will win this game by more than a touchdown.
The reality is that the Bengals just haven’t been good against the run this season. Through two games, Cincinnati is 25th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.017). That should give Washington an opening in this game. The Commanders are fourth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play (0.071) on offense, with Brian Robinson Jr. having already rushed for 173 yards and a touchdown. Robinson is a battering ram and should soften up the Bengals defense with his power between the tackles. That will then open things up for rookie Jayden Daniels to make some plays as a passer. Daniels is off to an up-and-down start this season, but his job will be a lot easier if Cincinnati can’t stop the Washington running game. Daniels should also have a pretty big day with his own legs, as he’s an electric runner and the Bengals are likely going to be very focused on keeping Robinson in check.
The big question in this game is whether the Commanders can come even remotely close to containing Ja’Marr Chase. Washington has given up some big receiving performances this season, allowing Chris Godwin to have eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and then Malik Nabers to go for 10 catches for 127 yards and a score in Week 2. That said, Chase will be licking his chops heading into this game, but Dan Quinn is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL. He should have something planned for Chase, even if it’s just rolling help in his direction and forcing Tee Higgins to beat one-on-one coverage fresh off an injury. Washington will also be content to let Cincinnati come with a run-heavy approach, as most defenses in the NFL have been all year.
In the end, I’d be really surprised if the Bengals don’t find a way to win outright. However, grabbing the points might be the best way to approach this game, and that includes the total. I have a slight lean on the Under as well, but there are a lot of players with big-play potential in this game. That’s a little scary when hoping for a low-scoring game.
Commanders vs. Bengals Player Props
Brian Robinson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-119)
After rushing for only 40 yards on 12 attempts in a 37-20 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 1, Robinson responded with 133 yards on 17 carries against the Giants in Week 2. Robinson also found the end zone in a 21-18 win over New York. Kliff Kingsbury isn’t the most well-respected coordinator at this point in his career, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that Robinson’s running played a big role in the Commanders earning their first victory of the season. So, with this being another plus matchup for the running game, it’d be a little surprising if we don’t see a big performance out of the third-year back.
Of course, the risk here is that Washington might abandon the run if Cincinnati jumps out to a big lead. However, as previously noted, I’m on the Commanders side here, so I don’t see that happening. The Bengals should figure this all out eventually, but they have been slow starters under Zac Taylor and it might take a little more time for them to find themselves on both sides of the ball.
Commanders vs. Bengals Pick
It’s only a matter of time before Cincinnati finds its stride, but I can’t help but think Washington is getting too many points here. With that being the case, I’m actually adding Washington as one of my Week 3 NFL best bets. The Bengals are just 1-4 against the spread as home favorites of 7.5 to 14 points under Taylor. Cincinnati can’t be trusted to blow teams out.
Pick: Commanders +7.5 (-115)
