Detroit Lions 2024 Predictions and Odds:
Life as a Lions fan has been rough, but Ford Field hosted its first playoff game ever last season and Detroit was one win away from going to the Super Bowl. After not winning a playoff game from 1991 until 2024, something special is finally happening in the Motor City and the momentum of last year is expected to carry over.
The Lions are favored to win the NFC North, some MVP money on Jared Goff is flying around thanks to our VSiN staff, and a strong coaching staff and competent front office remained intact to give it another run.
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Offense
After outgaining opponents by nearly 1,000 yards last season, the Lions offense is ready to run it back with a tremendously favorable schedule. We all know the concerns about Goff in cold weather, but he’ll only play three games outside this season and only one looks ripe for bad weather with a December 22 visit to Soldier Field in Chicago. The other road games are November 3 at Green Bay and December 30 at San Francisco.
Goff was terrific last season with a 30/12 TD/INT ratio and a 67.3% completion rate. The Lions finished eighth in EPA/play and seventh in Dropback EPA. They also found success running the ball with David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to the tune of the sixth-best Rush EPA.
The loss of OG Jonah Jackson should be mitigated with the addition of veteran OG Kevin Zeitler, meaning this team looks nearly identical to last season’s squad.
Defense
There will be pressure on Goff and the offense to carry the defense once again, but this was arguably the league’s worst defense three years ago and has made strides each year since. The 2023 version still finished 21st in EPA/play and struggled terribly against the pass, but the hope would be that a rebuilt secondary led by Carlton Davis and first-round pick Terrion Arnold would do the trick.
The Lions should also have a better pass rush with Marcus Davenport and D.J. Reader. Aaron Glenn’s defense actually led the league in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference, but tied for 23rd in sacks. It seems like Glenn will try to remain aggressive, as three of the top four 2024 draftees were defensive backs and Davis was targeted via trade. It also makes sense in a division with Jordan Love and two first-round QBs, including the No. 1 overall pick in Caleb Williams.
Outlook
I really like this Lions team. I also like Goff at 40/1 to win MVP. While I do think the Packers and Bears should be improved, the game locations really help the Lions this season. Furthermore, the fact that nobody took OC Ben Johnson to be a head coach should also provide a big boost.
Nothing struck me as a fluke about last season and Brad Holmes is doing an outstanding job as the GM. I don’t see why this team would drop by 2+ wins. The schedule is obviously tougher, but the team is also better.
Detroit Lions Pick: Over 10.5 Wins
