Week 7 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 8. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-5, 46)

The Colts (4-3) have won two straight games and just held off the Dolphins 16-10, covering as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Texans (5-2) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Packers 24-22 but covering as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Houston listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Texans. However, despite receiving 78% of spread bets we’ve seen Houston fall from -6.5 to -5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Colts, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. Indianapolis is receiving 22% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Colts have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Road dogs are 37-28 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season. Road dogs getting 4.5-point or more are 19-10 ATS (66%) with a 25% ROI. C.J. Stroud is 6-2 ATS (75%) as a dog but just 5-9 ATS (36%) as a favorite. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 46. The under is receiving 54% of bets but a whopping 96% of dollars, a massive sharp under bet split. When the total falls at least a full point in a divisional game, the under is 9-7 (56%) this season and 185-157 (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2017.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 46) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons (4-3) just saw their three-game winning streak snapped, falling to the Seahawks 34-14 and losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (4-3) just came up short against the Ravens 41-31, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. The early opener for this game was Bucs -2.5 at home. However, following a pair of key injuries to Tampa Bay WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, we’ve seen a huge shift in line movement toward the Falcons, who have flipped from a 2.5-point road dog to a 2.5-point road favorite. Atlanta is receiving 60% of spread bets but 80% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Road favorites are 24-11 ATS (69%) with a 29% ROI this season. The Falcons enjoy a “rest vs tired advantage,” as they played on Sunday while the Bucs are on a short week having played on Monday night. Those looking to follow the sharp Falcons move but wary of now laying points around a key number could instead target Atlanta on the moneyline at -145. The Falcons are receiving 52% of moneyline bets but 72% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 55-43 ATS (56%) to the road team, historically. We’ve also seen this total fall from 49.5 to 46. Outdoor divisional unders are 11-9 (55%) this season and 234-190 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2021.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 46.5)

The Cowboys (3-3) just had their two-game win streak come to an end, getting rolled by the Lions 47-9 and failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the 49ers (3-4) just fell to the Chiefs 28-18, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. The early opener for this game was 49ers -6.5 at home. However, following the injuries to 49ers WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, we’ve quickly seen this line tumble down from San Francisco -6.5 to -4.5. This move is especially notable because the public is still backing the 49ers (60% of spread bets), yet the line moved in favor of the unpopular Cowboys. Dallas is only receiving 40% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet Sunday Night Football showdown. Road dogs +4.5 or more are 19-10 ATS (66%) this season. Primetime dogs are 128-106 ATS (55%) since 2020. The Cowboys enjoy a notable notable “rest vs tired” advantage as Dallas is coming off a bye week while the 49ers played on Sunday. Dallas is 3-0 on the road this season but 0-3 at home. The Cowboys are also a prime “Wong Teaser” candidate (+4.5 to +10.5), passing through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. We’ve also seen this total fall from 50.5 to 46.5. The under is receiving 33% of bets but a whopping 86% of dollars, a massive smart money under discrepancy. Primetime unders are 172-120 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2019.

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