Early NFL thoughts for Chiefs vs. Eagles in Super Bowl LVII
Super Bowl LVII is also the Andy Reid Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs head coach will face his former team, the Philadelphia Eagles, in Glendale, Ariz. on Feb. 12 with kickoff at 6:30 p.m. ET. The Eagles are out to -2 favorites with a total of 49.5, as all eyes will be on the ankle of Patrick Mahomes with the two weeks of prep for the big game.
Circa Sports opened the Chiefs -2.5 against the Eagles, but that swing swung rather quickly. Other sportsbooks opened anywhere from pick ‘em to the Eagles as a slight favorite. It was all over the place, but we’ve settled in now with the number that we’re likely to see for a while between now and kickoff.
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Here are some initial thoughts on the line and the game:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2, 49.5)
Mahomes was clearly compromised and hobbled throughout most of the 23-20 AFC Championship Game win against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he’ll have an extra week’s worth of rest and treatment before the teams descend on the desert for all of their media obligations the week of the game.
Meanwhile, the Eagles didn’t have to spend much energy in their 31-7 win over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Brock Purdy was injured early, Josh Johnson was concussed in the middle of the game and a visibly-injured Purdy could barely throw a forward pass when thrust back into action.
That, too, will be a talking point over the next two weeks. The Eagles have not been tested this postseason at all. Jalen Hurts hasn’t had to do much, as Philadelphia’s offensive line and running game have been dominant in wins over the 49ers and New York Giants. There is only one Mahomes, but the Eagles could be punished in the lead-up to the game by not having played many good quarterbacks of late.
Philadelphia caught the Johnson-Purdy tandem in the NFC Championship Game, Daniel Jones in the Divisional Round, Davis Webb in Week 18, Andy Dalton in Week 17, Dak Prescott in Week 16, Justin Fields in Week 15, Jones in Week 14 and Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis in Week 13. This represents a huge step up in class.
There is really no way of knowing how Mahomes will be moving around 12 or 13 days from now because one of the keys to this game will be his ability to evade an Eagles pass rush that has been nothing short of dominant this season. We also haven’t seen Hurts have to use his mobility all that much lately, something that will be called upon against an underrated Chiefs pass rush.
My initial instinct is to lean with the Eagles because of their ability to run the football as effectively as they have been. Hurts can use his legs, but the offensive line has been on another level for the Eagles in the second half of the season. They keep running backs fresh and have the ability to really win this game at the point of attack. But, there is a ton of time to analyze and evaluate each and every matchup, so I’m definitely not jumping quickly into this game.
Early thoughts on prop betting strategies
Player and game props are all the rage for the Super Bowl and deservedly so. The line on the game should be the absolute tightest of the season with so many data points and no other games on the NFL slate. Prop lines could be mispriced and there will be players that have good matchups. This Super Bowl is a bit of a challenge because both teams have so many ways of spreading the ball around. Kansas City is less democratic with touches because of Travis Kelce, but his prop lines are always priced really high.
One player that really stood out to me during the AFC Championship Game was Isiah Pacheco. He wound up with five catches for 59 yards on six targets. Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon only had six touches total. McKinnon is the more reliable back for blitz pickup purposes, so he’ll remain valuable against the Eagles with their ability to get to the quarterback, but Pacheco hadn’t had more than three catches and three targets in any game this season prior to the win over the Bengals.
It would seem like he was viewed as a major x-factor in that game. Is that something that Reid and Bieniemy will carry over to the Super Bowl? That’s something I’ll be looking at because Pacheco only averaged 0.8 catches and 7.6 receiving yards per game. We could see some fairly low prop total numbers on him as a pass catcher.
We’ll have wall-to-wall Super Bowl coverage at VSiN.com and on all of our shows in the lead-up to the game, so you’re going to hear a lot of different perspectives, different bets and different philosophies on how to bet the game. My best piece of advice is to have a plan going in. Don’t overexpose yourself on one side where you have a lot of money tied to one outcome on the game. Be smart. Be responsible. Shop around for the best odds. Leverage sign-up bonuses, promos and odds boosts. Don’t empty the tank when greater edges can be had elsewhere.
It’s the single biggest game and betting event of the year. Of course we all want to have action, but be smart about it. Don’t take over 47.5 receiving yards on a player when you can find over 43.5 receiving yards at another shop. Don’t lay -115 on a prop when you can find it at -105. Don’t take +400 on a player for MVP when you can find +600.
You’ve got plenty of lead time for this game. We’ll have plenty of advice for you. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN.
For now, check out our initial news article on the Eagles opening as Super Bowl favorites, our Big Game Betting Guide with general tips on the Super Bowl and our updated list of big bets on Super Bowl LVII.
